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Os Marialvas vs GD Peniche

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Os Marialvas Logo

Os Marialvas

1 - 3
FT
GD Peniche Logo

GD Peniche

Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Sonhi Y.
15' Event
Sousa Lamas D. A.
64' Event
Oliveira L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

GD Peniche in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored GD Peniche.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Os Marialvas
15%
Draws
21%
GD Peniche
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Os Marialvas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Os Marialvas have won more games recently than GD Peniche.
  • Model gives Os Marialvas a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 66.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 68%
GD Peniche Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Os Marialvas GD Peniche
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.14 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.77 1.02
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs GD Peniche
1:3
Nov 2, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Os Marialvas
0:1
Mar 2, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Os Marialvas
0:0
Nov 3, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs GD Peniche
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Os Marialvas Compare

Top Goalscorer Sonhi Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.89

GD Peniche Compare

Top Goalscorer Sousa Lamas D. A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Oliveira L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.57

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Os Marialvas 95 / 100
GD Peniche 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Os Marialvas GD Peniche

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Os Marialvas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Os Marialvas scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: GD Peniche conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.75 goals as a typical output.

Os Marialvas went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Os Marialvas VS GD Peniche
0.88 Goals Scored 1.67
0.38 Goals Conceded 2.67
50% Over 1.5 83%
0% Over 2.5 67%
0% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

Os Marialvas

(Home)
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
30 Aug
Fornos de Algodres
0 : 4
Os Marialvas
23 Aug
Os Marialvas
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
16 Aug
Malveira
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
01 Aug
Sao Joao de Ver
2 : 0
Os Marialvas
Page 1 of 6

GD Peniche

(Away)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2
SB Castelo Branco
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
22 Mar
Electrico FC
4 : 2
GD Peniche
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)