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Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni, Ospitaletto
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ospitaletto host Pergolettese in the Serie C - Group A. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Ospitaletto have averaged 1.5 scored and 1.07 conceded recently, against Pergolettese's 1 scored and 0.97 conceded. Past meetings favor Pergolettese slightly — 1-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 25, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 0.50, favoring Ospitaletto. The model tips Under 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Ospitaletto
35%
Draws
30%
Pergolettese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Ospitaletto have won more games recently than Pergolettese.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Ospitaletto Clean Sheet 68%
Pergolettese Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ospitaletto Pergolettese
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 11 11
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Pergolettese vs Ospitaletto
1:0
Sep 12, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese
1:2
Aug 2, 2025 Club Friendly
Pergolettese vs Ospitaletto
0:0
Aug 7, 2024 Club Friendly
Pergolettese vs Ospitaletto
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ospitaletto 41 / 100
Pergolettese 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ospitaletto Pergolettese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ospitaletto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ospitaletto found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Pergolettese let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Ospitaletto has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ospitaletto VS Pergolettese
1.75 Goals Scored 0.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ospitaletto

(Home)
11 Oct
Treviso
0 : 1
Ospitaletto
03 Oct
Ospitaletto
1 : 1
Renate
26 Sept
Novara
0 : 2
Ospitaletto
20 Sept
Ospitaletto
0 : 1
Cittadella
17 Sept
Carpi
2 : 2
Ospitaletto
Page 1 of 6

Pergolettese

(Away)
10 Oct
Pergolettese
2 : 1
Carpi
03 Oct
Arzignano
2 : 2
Pergolettese
26 Sept
Pergolettese
0 : 0
Trento
20 Sept
Lecco
0 : 0
Pergolettese
17 Sept
Pergolettese
0 : 0
Folgore Caratese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cittadella 9 8 0 1 16:4 24
2 Union Brescia 9 5 4 0 16:6 19
3 Ospitaletto 9 5 3 1 15:6 18
4 Arzignano 9 5 2 2 14:10 17
5 Trento 9 4 5 0 12:5 17
6 Treviso 9 3 4 2 8:7 13
7 Desenzano Calvina 9 3 4 2 8:7 13
8 AlbinoLeffe 9 3 3 3 14:13 12
9 Alcione Milano 9 2 6 1 13:14 12
10 Lumezzane 9 3 3 3 10:11 12
11 Pergolettese 9 2 5 2 5:6 11
12 Lecco 9 2 4 3 7:9 10
13 Dolomiti Bellunesi 9 2 4 3 7:9 10
14 Novara 9 2 3 4 8:12 9
15 Pro Vercelli 9 2 3 4 8:13 9
16 Juventus U23 9 1 4 4 8:15 7
17 Carpi 9 1 3 5 11:19 6
18 Folgore Caratese 9 1 3 5 9:13 6
19 Giana Erminio 9 0 5 4 8:12 5
20 Renate 9 0 4 5 8:14 4
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)