Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pachuca vs Toluca

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
del Villar E.
35'
Rondon S.
35'
Pereira F.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX 2025/2026 game between Pachuca and Toluca finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Pachuca
22%
Draws
18%
Toluca
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Pachuca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pachuca come out ahead of Toluca on wins alone.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Pachuca taking it.
  • Regular Liga MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Pachuca Clean Sheet 20%
Toluca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pachuca Toluca
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 16 15
Draws 4 7
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.38 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Toluca
2:0
May 4, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
0:1
Mar 22, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Toluca
1:1
Oct 27, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
2:2
Mar 29, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pachuca Compare

Top Goalscorer Montiel E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pachuca 58 / 100
Toluca 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pachuca Toluca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pachuca scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Toluca conceded in 69% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Pachuca went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pachuca VS Toluca
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pachuca

(Home)
27 Jul
Pachuca
1 : 2
Queretaro
18 Jul
UNAM Pumas
0 : 3
Pachuca
04 Jul
Pachuca
3 : 1
Puebla
18 May
UNAM Pumas
1 : 0
Pachuca
15 May
Pachuca
1 : 0
UNAM Pumas
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Toluca

(Away)
26 Jul
Toluca
1 : 3
Cruz Azul
22 Jul
Toluca
1 : 2
UNAM Pumas
19 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas
0 : 2
Toluca
10 Jul
Atlante
3 : 3
Toluca
04 Jul
Cancun
1 : 0
Toluca
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1UNAM Pumas17106134:1736
2Guadalajara Chivas17113333:1736
3Cruz Azul1796231:1833
4Pachuca1794425:1931
5Toluca1786328:1630
6Atlas1775516:1826
7Tigres UANL1774628:1825
8Club America1774620:1725
9Club Tijuana1758419:1723
10Club Leon1771922:3222
11Queretaro1748517:2120
12Juarez1754826:3219
13Monterrey1753922:2418
14Atletico San Luis1753924:2718
15Necaxa1753919:2518
16Mazatlan FC17431022:3715
17Puebla17341013:2613
18Santos Laguna17331120:3812
Promotion - Liga MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)