Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pachuca vs Toluca

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Valencia E.
(Penalty)
13'
Idrissi O.
46'
Sub
Simon S. In: Rossi F.
Out: Simon S.

AI Match Summary

Pachuca in this Liga MX 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Pachuca
20%
Draws
52%
Toluca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toluca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Pachuca haven't matched Toluca's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Toluca arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Pachuca, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Pachuca Clean Sheet 17%
Toluca Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pachuca Toluca
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 16 18
Draws 4 5
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.59 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Toluca
2:0
May 4, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
0:1
Mar 22, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Toluca
1:1
Oct 27, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
2:2
Mar 29, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pachuca Compare

Top Goalscorer Kenedy R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Toluca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pachuca 31 / 100
Toluca 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pachuca Toluca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Pachuca scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Toluca has conceded goals in 66% of their last 32 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Pachuca remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pachuca VS Toluca
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pachuca

(Home)
12 Sept
Atlante
0 : 3
Pachuca
05 Sept
Juarez
0 : 2
Pachuca
29 Aug
Pachuca
1 : 1
Guadalajara Chivas
23 Aug
Atletico San Luis
1 : 1
Pachuca
18 Aug
Pachuca
2 : 3
Puebla
Page 1 of 6

Toluca

(Away)
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
07 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Monterrey
03 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Club Leon
31 Aug
Toluca
4 : 0
Juarez
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
UNAM Pumas 6
Club America 6
Pachuca 3
Toluca 0
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Tigres UANL 3
Cruz Azul 4
Atlas 2
Semi-finals
UNAM Pumas 1
Pachuca 1
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Cruz Azul 4
Final
UNAM Pumas 1
Cruz Azul 2