Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pachuca vs Toluca

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Valencia E.
(Penalty)
13'
Idrissi O.
46'
Sub
Simon S. In: Rossi F.
Out: Simon S.

AI Match Summary

Pachuca in this Liga MX 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Pachuca
17%
Draws
13%
Toluca
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Pachuca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Toluca haven't matched Pachuca's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Pachuca's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Pachuca have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Pachuca, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Pachuca Clean Sheet 19%
Toluca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pachuca Toluca
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 16 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.38 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Toluca
2:0
May 4, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
0:1
Mar 22, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Toluca
1:1
Oct 27, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
2:2
Mar 29, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pachuca Compare

Top Goalscorer Kenedy R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Toluca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pachuca 67 / 100
Toluca 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pachuca Toluca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Pachuca scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Toluca has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Pachuca remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pachuca VS Toluca
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pachuca

(Home)
27 Jul
Pachuca
1 : 2
Queretaro
18 Jul
UNAM Pumas
0 : 3
Pachuca
04 Jul
Pachuca
3 : 1
Puebla
18 May
UNAM Pumas
1 : 0
Pachuca
15 May
Pachuca
1 : 0
UNAM Pumas
Page 1 of 6

Toluca

(Away)
26 Jul
Toluca
1 : 3
Cruz Azul
22 Jul
Toluca
1 : 2
UNAM Pumas
19 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas
0 : 2
Toluca
10 Jul
Atlante
3 : 3
Toluca
04 Jul
Cancun
1 : 0
Toluca
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
UNAM Pumas6
Club America6
Pachuca3
Toluca0
Guadalajara Chivas3
Tigres UANL3
Cruz Azul4
Atlas2
Semi-finals
UNAM Pumas1
Pachuca1
Guadalajara Chivas3
Cruz Azul4
Final
UNAM Pumas1
Cruz Azul2