Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pachuca vs UNAM Pumas

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Idrissi O.
Assist: Guzman V.
58'
Sub
Lopez R. In: Antuna U.
Out: Lopez R.
60'
Morales R.

AI Match Summary

Pachuca in this Liga MX 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Pachuca
30%
Draws
23%
UNAM Pumas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pachuca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Pachuca have won more games recently than UNAM Pumas.
  • Win probability leans Pachuca's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Pachuca have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Pachuca, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Pachuca Clean Sheet 68%
UNAM Pumas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pachuca UNAM Pumas
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 15 10
Draws 5 8
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.57 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Liga MX
UNAM Pumas vs Pachuca
0:3
May 18, 2026 Liga MX
UNAM Pumas vs Pachuca
1:0
May 15, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs UNAM Pumas
1:0
Apr 25, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs UNAM Pumas
0:2
Nov 21, 2025 Liga MX
Pachuca vs UNAM Pumas
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pachuca Compare

Top Goalscorer Idrissi O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

UNAM Pumas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pachuca 95 / 100
UNAM Pumas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pachuca UNAM Pumas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pachuca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pachuca found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

UNAM Pumas has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Pachuca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pachuca VS UNAM Pumas
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Pachuca

(Home)
27 Sept
Santos Laguna
1 : 0
Pachuca
21 Sept
Pachuca
2 : 2
Club Tijuana
12 Sept
Atlante
0 : 3
Pachuca
05 Sept
Juarez
0 : 2
Pachuca
29 Aug
Pachuca
1 : 1
Guadalajara Chivas
Page 1 of 6

UNAM Pumas

(Away)
27 Sept
UNAM Pumas
2 : 3
Atletico San Luis
19 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas
14 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas
3 : 0
UNAM Pumas
11 Sept
UNAM Pumas
3 : 1
Club Leon
29 Aug
Club Tijuana
2 : 0
UNAM Pumas
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
UNAM Pumas 6
Club America 6
Pachuca 3
Toluca 0
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Tigres UANL 3
Cruz Azul 4
Atlas 2
Semi-finals
UNAM Pumas 1
Pachuca 1
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Cruz Azul 4
Final
UNAM Pumas 1
Cruz Azul 2