Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Paderborn vs Freiburg

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
Sat, Sep 5, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Paderborn host Freiburg in the Bundesliga. This one's hard to separate. Freiburg have shipped 1.4 goals a game lately, while Paderborn have conceded 1.46 and scored 1.96. Past meetings favor Freiburg slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 1, 2023, ending 1:3. The numbers (1.50 xG vs 1.44) point toward Paderborn. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Paderborn
15%
Draws
46%
Freiburg
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Freiburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Freiburg have won more games recently than Paderborn.
  • Win probability leans Freiburg's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Paderborn Clean Sheet 16%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paderborn Freiburg
Matches Played 28 35
Wins 14 20
Draws 8 3
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.96 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2023 DFB Pokal
Freiburg vs Paderborn
1:3
Jan 25, 2020 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Paderborn
0:2
Aug 24, 2019 Bundesliga
Paderborn vs Freiburg
1:3
Apr 29, 2016 2. Bundesliga
Paderborn vs Freiburg
1:2
Nov 22, 2015 2. Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Paderborn
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paderborn 23 / 100
Freiburg 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paderborn Freiburg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freiburg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Paderborn scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.

Freiburg has conceded goals in 83% of their last 35 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Paderborn has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Paderborn VS Freiburg
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Paderborn

(Home)
23 Aug
Phonix Lubeck
2 : 4
Paderborn
08 Aug
Werder Bremen
2 : 2
Paderborn
01 Aug
VfL Osnabruck
0 : 2
Paderborn
17 Jul
Paderborn
3 : 1
Okayama
25 May
Paderborn
2 : 1
Wolfsburg
Page 1 of 6

Freiburg

(Away)
27 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1
Motherwell
23 Aug
Dusseldorf
1 : 5
Freiburg
20 Aug
Motherwell
1 : 3
Freiburg
15 Aug
Freiburg
3 : 0
Crystal Palace
08 Aug
Freiburg
2 : 0
Strasbourg
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Union Berlin 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Bayern Munich 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Bayer Leverkusen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Werder Bremen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Schalke 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Hamburger 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Dortmund 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 B. Monchengladbach 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Hoffenheim 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 1. FC Koln 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Mainz 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Augsburg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Paderborn 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 VfB Stuttgart 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Elversberg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 RB Leipzig 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)