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Paderborn vs Freiburg - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Eggestein M.
38'
Curda L.
43'
Suzuki Y.

AI Match Summary

Freiburg in this Bundesliga matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Freiburg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Paderborn
15%
Draws
40%
Freiburg
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paderborn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Freiburg have won more games recently than Paderborn.
  • Win probability leans Paderborn's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Paderborn Clean Sheet 10%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paderborn Freiburg
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 14 17
Draws 9 2
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.71 2.26
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Bundesliga
Paderborn vs Freiburg
0:1
Nov 1, 2023 DFB Pokal
Freiburg vs Paderborn
1:3
Jan 25, 2020 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Paderborn
0:2
Aug 24, 2019 Bundesliga
Paderborn vs Freiburg
1:3
Apr 29, 2016 2. Bundesliga
Paderborn vs Freiburg
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paderborn Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Freiburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Eggestein M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paderborn 47 / 100
Freiburg 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paderborn Freiburg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paderborn Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Freiburg has conceded goals in 81% of their last 27 outings.

Attacking prowess: Paderborn scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Paderborn has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Paderborn VS Freiburg
0.88 Goals Scored 2.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Paderborn

(Home)
24 Oct
Paderborn
1 : 0
Hamburger
17 Oct
Werder Bremen
2 : 2
Paderborn
10 Oct
Paderborn
0 : 2
VfB Stuttgart
30 Sept
DC United
0 : 1
Paderborn
20 Sept
Paderborn
3 : 1
Hoffenheim
Page 1 of 6

Freiburg

(Away)
22 Oct
Monaco
3 : 0
Freiburg
18 Oct
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 1
Freiburg
15 Oct
Freiburg
3 : 2
Jablonec
11 Oct
Freiburg
2 : 1
Schalke
03 Oct
Freiburg
4 : 2
Luzern
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 7 5 2 0 25:6 17
2 Dortmund 7 5 2 0 12:4 17
3 Freiburg 7 4 1 2 16:9 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen 7 4 1 2 16:12 13
5 RB Leipzig 7 4 0 3 20:11 12
6 Werder Bremen 7 3 3 1 15:14 12
7 Mainz 7 3 1 3 16:13 10
8 Elversberg 7 3 1 3 12:15 10
9 Augsburg 7 2 3 2 17:13 9
10 Hoffenheim 7 3 0 4 14:14 9
11 Hamburger 7 3 0 4 6:16 9
12 1. FC Koln 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
13 Paderborn 7 2 2 3 6:9 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt 7 2 2 3 10:17 8
15 VfB Stuttgart 7 2 0 5 10:13 6
16 Schalke 7 1 3 3 4:7 6
17 Union Berlin 7 1 3 3 6:18 6
18 B. Monchengladbach 7 1 0 6 11:22 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)