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Padova vs Bari

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Di Mariano F.
Assist: Buonaiuto C.
32'
Maggiore G.
39'
Cistana A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Padova and Bari finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Padova
44%
Draws
20%
Bari
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Padova carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Padova Clean Sheet 18%
Bari Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padova Bari
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 8
Draws 6 9
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Serie B
Padova vs Bari
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Serie B
Bari vs Padova
2:1
Jul 31, 2022 Coppa Italia
Bari vs Padova
3:0
Apr 26, 2014 Serie B
Padova vs Bari
1:2
Nov 23, 2013 Serie B
Bari vs Padova
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padova Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Mariano F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Bari Compare

Top Goalscorer Piscopo K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padova 36 / 100
Bari 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padova Bari

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padova's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Bari's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Padova went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Padova VS Bari
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Padova

(Home)
01 Aug
Cittadella
0 : 2
Padova
25 Jul
Padova
1 : 3
Ospitaletto
22 Jul
Sassuolo
4 : 1
Padova
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
01 May
Padova
1 : 0
Pescara
Page 1 of 6

Bari

(Away)
28 Jul
Lanciano
0 : 1
Bari
22 May
Sudtirol
0 : 0
Bari
15 May
Bari
0 : 0
Sudtirol
08 May
Catanzaro
2 : 3
Bari
01 May
Bari
2 : 0
Entella
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)