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Stadium Background

Padova vs Carrarese

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Illanes J.
29' Event
Lasagna K.
46'
Sub
Seghetti A. In: Faedo C.
Out: Seghetti A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Padova and Carrarese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Padova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Padova
22%
Draws
18%
Carrarese
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Padova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Carrarese haven't matched Padova's recent run of results.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Padova taking it.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Padova Clean Sheet 68%
Carrarese Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padova Carrarese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 6 9
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 10, 2026 Serie B
Padova vs Carrarese
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 Serie B
Carrarese vs Padova
0:0
Nov 23, 2016 Coppa Italia Serie C
Carrarese vs Padova
0:1
Jan 19, 2003 Lega Pro C1/A
Padova vs Carrarese
1:0
Sep 14, 2002 Lega Pro C1/A
Carrarese vs Padova
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padova Compare

Top Goalscorer Lasagna K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Carrarese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padova 68 / 100
Carrarese 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padova Carrarese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padova scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Carrarese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Away concern: Carrarese has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Padova VS Carrarese
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Padova

(Home)
25 Jul
Padova
1 : 3
Ospitaletto
22 Jul
Sassuolo
4 : 1
Padova
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
01 May
Padova
1 : 0
Pescara
25 Apr
Entella
1 : 0
Padova
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Carrarese

(Away)
26 Jul
Napoli
2 : 0
Carrarese
08 May
Entella
2 : 1
Carrarese
01 May
Carrarese
0 : 0
Cesena
25 Apr
Frosinone
3 : 0
Carrarese
19 Apr
Carrarese
2 : 2
Pescara
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Venezia382410477:3182
2Frosinone382312376:3481
3Monza382210661:3276
4Palermo382012661:3372
5Catanzaro381514962:5159
6Modena3815101349:3655
7Juve Stabia381118944:4551
8Avellino3813101543:5549
9Mantova381371845:5746
10Padova3812101639:4946
11Cesena3812101645:5646
12Carrarese3810141447:5244
13Sampdoria3811111635:4844
14Entella3810121636:5142
15Empoli389141547:5441
16Sudtirol388171338:4841
17Bari3810101838:6040
18Reggiana389101936:5637
19Spezia388111943:5935
20Pescara387141751:6635
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)