Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Padova vs Catanzaro

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Alesi G.
Assist: Pittarello F.
36'
Liberali M.
51' Event
Iemmello P.
Assist: Favasuli C.

AI Match Summary

Catanzaro in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Catanzaro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Padova
39%
Draws
30%
Catanzaro
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Catanzaro lately — more wins on the board than Padova.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Padova Clean Sheet 12%
Catanzaro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padova Catanzaro
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 10 16
Draws 6 8
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.25 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Serie B
Padova vs Catanzaro
1:3
Oct 19, 2025 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Padova
0:1
May 29, 2022 Serie C - Group B
Padova vs Catanzaro
2:1
May 25, 2022 Serie C - Group B
Catanzaro vs Padova
0:0
Jan 19, 2022 Coppa Italia Serie C
Catanzaro vs Padova
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padova Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Maggio L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Catanzaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Iemmello P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Alesi G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padova 30 / 100
Catanzaro 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padova Catanzaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padova's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Catanzaro let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Padova has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Padova VS Catanzaro
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Padova

(Home)
01 Aug
Cittadella
0 : 2
Padova
25 Jul
Padova
1 : 3
Ospitaletto
22 Jul
Sassuolo
4 : 1
Padova
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
01 May
Padova
1 : 0
Pescara
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Catanzaro

(Away)
29 Jul
Catanzaro
3 : 1
Paradiso
29 May
Monza
0 : 2
Catanzaro
24 May
Catanzaro
0 : 2
Monza
20 May
Palermo
2 : 0
Catanzaro
17 May
Catanzaro
3 : 0
Palermo
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Venezia382410477:3182
2Frosinone382312376:3481
3Monza382210661:3276
4Palermo382012661:3372
5Catanzaro381514962:5159
6Modena3815101349:3655
7Juve Stabia381118944:4551
8Avellino3813101543:5549
9Mantova381371845:5746
10Padova3812101639:4946
11Cesena3812101645:5646
12Carrarese3810141447:5244
13Sampdoria3811111635:4844
14Entella3810121636:5142
15Empoli389141547:5441
16Sudtirol388171338:4841
17Bari3810101838:6040
18Reggiana389101936:5637
19Spezia388111943:5935
20Pescara387141751:6635
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)