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Paduano EC vs Nova Cidade

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Lyniker
24' Event
Admilton
42' Event
Pablo Tanque

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Paduano EC and Nova Cidade finished 5-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paduano EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Paduano EC
20%
Draws
38%
Nova Cidade
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paduano EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Paduano EC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Paduano EC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Paduano EC Clean Sheet 68%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paduano EC Nova Cidade
Matches Played 25 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 3 11
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 0.96 0.93
Goals Conceded 1 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2025 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Nova Cidade
5:2
Oct 26, 2024 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Nova Cidade
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paduano EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Pires
2 Goals
Assists Leader Lyniker
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Nova Cidade Compare

Top Goalscorer Pablo Tanque
1 Goals
Assists Leader Robert Carioca
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paduano EC 51 / 100
Nova Cidade 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paduano EC Nova Cidade

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Paduano EC found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (25 games).

Nova Cidade has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Paduano EC has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Paduano EC VS Nova Cidade
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Paduano EC

(Home)
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
06 Sept
Paduano EC
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
30 Aug
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
Paduano EC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Paduano EC
2 : 0
Friburguense
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Nova Cidade

(Away)
12 Sept
Nova Cidade
2 : 2
Sao Cristovao
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Campo Grande
01 Nov
Duque de Caxias
2 : 2
Nova Cidade
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)