Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pafos vs AEK Larnaca

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Jaja
35'
Jaja
57'
Brito A.

AI Match Summary

The Cyprus League game between Pafos and AEK Larnaca finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Pafos
39%
Draws
31%
AEK Larnaca
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Pafos have managed 1.38 goals a game lately — AEK Larnaca are scoring more at 1.5.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Pafos Clean Sheet 68%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pafos AEK Larnaca
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.38 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:1
Jan 25, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:2
Oct 30, 2025 Super Cup
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:2
Oct 5, 2025 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaja
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

AEK Larnaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Mudrazija R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pafos 41 / 100
AEK Larnaca 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pafos AEK Larnaca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pafos scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

AEK Larnaca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Pafos stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pafos VS AEK Larnaca
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pafos

(Home)
16 Jul
Slovan Bratislava
3 : 2
Pafos
12 Jul
Jagiellonia
1 : 0
Pafos
08 Jul
Jablonec
0 : 0
Pafos
03 Jul
Cracovia
1 : 2
Pafos
29 May
Apollon Limassol
0 : 2
Pafos
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AEK Larnaca

(Away)
16 Jul
Apollon Limassol
0 : 0
AEK Larnaca
10 Jul
Ajax
1 : 0
AEK Larnaca
07 Jul
PAOK
3 : 2
AEK Larnaca
04 Jul
Helmond Sport
1 : 2
AEK Larnaca
22 May
Aris Limassol
3 : 4
AEK Larnaca
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Omonia36276388:2487
2AEK Larnaca36209762:3369
3Apollon Limassol36207952:4167
4Pafos361881066:3862
5APOEL361571453:4552
6Aris Limassol361491361:4551
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)