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Stadium Background

Pafos vs AEK Larnaca

Cyprus Cyprus

Super Cup 2025 GSP Stadium, Nicosia
Thu, Oct 30, 2025
1 - 2
05:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Quina D.
28' Event
Angielski K.
56'
Quina D.

AI Match Summary

AEK Larnaca in this Super Cup 2025 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Pafos
20%
Draws
40%
AEK Larnaca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Pafos at 1.77 per game, AEK Larnaca at 1.39.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor AEK Larnaca, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Pafos Clean Sheet 68%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pafos AEK Larnaca
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 12
Draws 9 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.77 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:1
Jan 25, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:2
Oct 30, 2025 Super Cup
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:2
Oct 5, 2025 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer Quina D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

AEK Larnaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Angielski K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pafos 41 / 100
AEK Larnaca 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pafos AEK Larnaca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pafos Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Pafos's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: AEK Larnaca conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Away concern: AEK Larnaca has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pafos VS AEK Larnaca
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pafos

(Home)
13 Aug
Pafos
3 : 3
Salzburg
06 Aug
Salzburg
1 : 0
Pafos
30 Jul
Pafos
4 : 0
Hajduk Split
23 Jul
Hajduk Split
2 : 0
Pafos
16 Jul
Slovan Bratislava
3 : 2
Pafos
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AEK Larnaca

(Away)
12 Aug
Asteras Tripolis
3 : 1
AEK Larnaca
08 Aug
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Omonia Aradippou
07 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 0
Karmiotissa
30 Jul
Beitar Jerusalem
3 : 3
AEK Larnaca
23 Jul
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Beitar Jerusalem
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Pafos 1
AEK Larnaca 2