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Pafos vs Riga FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Conference League Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
VS
04:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pafos host Riga FC in the Conference League. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Pafos have averaged 1.54 scored and 1.14 conceded recently, against Riga FC's 2.26 scored and 1.04 conceded. Past meetings favor Riga FC slightly — 1-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 26, 2022, ending 5:4. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 1.06, favoring Riga FC. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Pafos
20%
Draws
45%
Riga FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Riga FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Riga FC have won more games recently than Pafos.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Riga FC have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Pafos Clean Sheet 20%
Riga FC Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pafos Riga FC
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 19
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 2
Goals Scored 1.54 2.26
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2022 Club Friendly
Pafos vs Riga FC
5:4
Nov 17, 2019 Club Friendly
Pafos vs Riga FC
1:4
Jul 14, 2017 Club Friendly
Riga FC vs Pafos
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pafos 36 / 100
Riga FC 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pafos Riga FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Riga FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.67 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Pafos scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Riga FC conceded in 63% of 27 recent games.

Recent resilience: Pafos stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pafos VS Riga FC
1 Goals Scored 1.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pafos

(Home)
11 Oct
Anorthosis
1 : 3
Pafos
18 Sept
Pafos
0 : 2
AEL Limassol
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
07 Sept
Pafos
0 : 0
Ol. Nicosia
03 Sept
Omonia
0 : 1
Pafos
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Riga FC

(Away)
10 Oct
Tukums 2000
0 : 2
Riga FC
03 Oct
Aris Limassol
1 : 2
Riga FC
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
11 Sept
Riga FC
2 : 2
FK Auda Riga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mjallby 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Gent 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Twente 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
19 Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
20 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
21 Brann 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
22 Braga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
23 Hearts 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
24 Lugano 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
25 Crvena zvezda 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
26 Thun 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
27 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
28 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
29 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
30 KF Egnatia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
31 Inter Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
32 FK Kauno Zalgiris 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
33 Univ. Craiova 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
34 Iberia 1999 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
35 Lincoln Red Imps 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
36 Riga FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)