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Paganese vs Budoni Calcio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Paganese host Budoni Calcio in the Serie D - Group G. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: Paganese at 1.41 goals for, 1.16 against; Budoni Calcio at 1 for, 1.1 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (2.00 - 1.38) back Paganese to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Paganese
20%
Draws
51%
Budoni Calcio
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Budoni Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Paganese have won more games recently than Budoni Calcio.
  • Paganese are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group G form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Paganese Clean Sheet 17%
Budoni Calcio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paganese Budoni Calcio
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 16 10
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.41 1
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paganese 57 / 100
Budoni Calcio 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paganese Budoni Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paganese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paganese found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Budoni Calcio conceded in 55% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Paganese remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Budoni Calcio lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paganese VS Budoni Calcio
2.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Paganese

(Home)
07 Oct
Paganese
1 : 2
Real Normanna
04 Oct
Sarnese
2 : 1
Paganese
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6
Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 7

Budoni Calcio

(Away)
04 Oct
Budoni Calcio
1 : 5
Monastir
27 Sept
US Venafro
2 : 3
Budoni Calcio
20 Sept
Budoni Calcio
2 : 0
Anzio Calcio 1924
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
12 Sept
Budoni Calcio
2 : 2
Aranova
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sarnese 6 4 2 0 11:6 14
2 Monastir 6 4 1 1 17:9 13
3 Certosa V. Campagnano 6 4 0 2 10:4 12
4 Unipomezia 6 3 2 1 11:6 11
5 Ossese 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
6 Trastevere Calcio 6 3 2 1 8:10 11
7 Paganese 6 3 1 2 14:9 10
8 Anzio Calcio 1924 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
9 Albalonga 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
10 Gelbison 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
11 Budoni Calcio 6 2 1 3 10:13 7
12 Citta di Anagni 6 2 1 3 7:10 7
13 Aranova 6 1 3 2 6:7 6
14 Afragolese 6 1 3 2 5:7 6
15 Sarrabus Ogliastra 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Latte Dolce 6 1 2 3 7:11 5
17 US Venafro 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
18 Atl. Lodigiani 6 0 1 5 8:17 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)