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Paiosaco vs Bergantinos

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Pedrosa D.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 game between Paiosaco and Bergantinos finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bergantinos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Paiosaco
20%
Draws
33%
Bergantinos
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paiosaco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Bergantinos carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Paiosaco Clean Sheet 20%
Bergantinos Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paiosaco Bergantinos
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 9 13
Draws 9 6
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 0.93 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Bergantinos
0:1
Nov 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Bergantinos vs Paiosaco
3:0
Feb 3, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Bergantinos vs Paiosaco
2:2
Oct 18, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Bergantinos
1:1
Apr 26, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Bergantinos vs Paiosaco
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paiosaco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Bergantinos Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedrosa D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paiosaco 36 / 100
Bergantinos 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paiosaco Bergantinos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bergantinos Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bergantinos has conceded goals in 61% of their last 33 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Paiosaco stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Paiosaco's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Bergantinos
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paiosaco

(Home)
12 May
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Lugo B
05 May
UD Ourense
3 : 0
Paiosaco
01 May
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 0
Paiosaco
27 Apr
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Pontevedra B
21 Apr
Arzua
1 : 2
Paiosaco
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Bergantinos

(Away)
16 Sept
Santa Marta Tormes
1 : 0
Bergantinos
13 Sept
Bergantinos
1 : 0
Amorebieta
09 Sept
Bergantinos
5 : 0
Leioa
06 Sept
Gernika Club
2 : 2
Bergantinos
12 Aug
Bergantinos
0 : 3
Lugo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 34 21 10 3 49:19 73
2 Gran Pena 34 15 16 3 48:30 61
3 Arosa SC 34 15 13 6 39:23 58
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 47:34 55
5 Sarriana 34 14 8 12 43:35 50
6 Atletico Arteixo 34 11 14 9 46:39 47
7 Somozas 34 12 9 13 43:39 45
8 Estradense 34 11 12 11 31:32 45
9 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 14 10 33:34 44
10 Viveiro 34 12 8 14 39:42 44
11 Alondras 34 10 14 10 37:36 44
12 Silva SD 34 11 10 13 35:35 43
13 Lugo B 34 11 10 13 32:34 43
14 Betanzos CF 34 10 13 11 35:31 43
15 Rapido de Bouzas 34 11 9 14 38:40 42
16 Paiosaco 34 10 11 13 30:42 41
17 Pontevedra B 34 7 5 22 27:65 26
18 Arzua 34 4 6 24 24:66 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Play Offs)