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Paiosaco vs Lugo B

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024
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Match Events

20' Event
Quintans C.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 game between Paiosaco and Lugo B finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paiosaco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Paiosaco
30%
Draws
31%
Lugo B
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Paiosaco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Lugo B carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Lugo B a 31% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Paiosaco Clean Sheet 20%
Lugo B Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paiosaco Lugo B
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 11
Draws 9 10
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.93 1.22
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Lugo B
1:0
Jan 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo B vs Paiosaco
3:0
Feb 28, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Lugo B
0:1
Nov 29, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo B vs Paiosaco
1:0
May 17, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Lugo B
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paiosaco Compare

Top Goalscorer Quintans C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Lugo B Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paiosaco 12 / 100
Lugo B 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paiosaco Lugo B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo B Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugo B let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Paiosaco has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Paiosaco found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lugo B
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paiosaco

(Home)
12 May
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Lugo B
05 May
UD Ourense
3 : 0
Paiosaco
01 May
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 0
Paiosaco
27 Apr
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Pontevedra B
21 Apr
Arzua
1 : 2
Paiosaco
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Lugo B

(Away)
10 May
Racing Club Villalbes
2 : 1
Lugo B
03 May
Lugo B
5 : 1
Barbadas-Bentraces
26 Apr
Alondras
0 : 4
Lugo B
19 Apr
Viveiro
0 : 0
Lugo B
11 Apr
Lugo B
0 : 0
Gran Pena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 34 21 10 3 49:19 73
2 Gran Pena 34 15 16 3 48:30 61
3 Arosa SC 34 15 13 6 39:23 58
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 47:34 55
5 Sarriana 34 14 8 12 43:35 50
6 Atletico Arteixo 34 11 14 9 46:39 47
7 Somozas 34 12 9 13 43:39 45
8 Estradense 34 11 12 11 31:32 45
9 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 14 10 33:34 44
10 Viveiro 34 12 8 14 39:42 44
11 Alondras 34 10 14 10 37:36 44
12 Silva SD 34 11 10 13 35:35 43
13 Lugo B 34 11 10 13 32:34 43
14 Betanzos CF 34 10 13 11 35:31 43
15 Rapido de Bouzas 34 11 9 14 38:40 42
16 Paiosaco 34 10 11 13 30:42 41
17 Pontevedra B 34 7 5 22 27:65 26
18 Arzua 34 4 6 24 24:66 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Play Offs)