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Palencia CF vs La Virgen

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Gonzalez M.
26' Event
Gonzalez M.
44' Event
Rodrigo D.

AI Match Summary

Palencia CF in this Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Palencia CF.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Palencia CF
20%
Draws
33%
La Virgen
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Palencia CF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Palencia CF have won more games recently than La Virgen.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Palencia CF Clean Sheet 17%
La Virgen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palencia CF La Virgen
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 11
Draws 3 7
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.62 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CF vs La Virgen
3:2
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
La Virgen vs Palencia CF
2:0
Mar 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CF vs La Virgen
2:3
Nov 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
La Virgen vs Palencia CF
0:1
Feb 25, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CF vs La Virgen
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Palencia CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vallecillo D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

La Virgen Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castrillo H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palencia CF 30 / 100
La Virgen 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palencia CF La Virgen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palencia CF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palencia CF found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

La Virgen has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Palencia CF stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Palencia CF VS La Virgen
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Palencia CF

(Home)
13 Sept
Palencia CF
0 : 1
Leonesa B
06 Sept
Mirandes B
0 : 2
Palencia CF
29 Aug
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1
Palencia CF
08 Aug
Gijon B
1 : 1
Palencia CF
07 Jun
Guijuelo
1 : 2
Palencia CF
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La Virgen

(Away)
12 Sept
La Virgen
4 : 1
Calasanz de Soria
06 Sept
Salamanca CF UDS B
1 : 2
La Virgen
29 Aug
Bembibre
0 : 0
La Virgen
10 May
CD Mojados
2 : 1
La Virgen
01 May
La Virgen
1 : 2
Almazan
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Tordesillas 34 24 6 4 62:24 78
2 Guijuelo 34 21 7 6 54:26 70
3 Palencia CA 34 21 5 8 48:24 68
4 Palencia CF 34 20 4 10 59:39 64
5 Santa Marta Tormes 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
6 Mansilles 34 15 12 7 31:27 57
7 Almazan 34 12 12 10 49:38 48
8 Mirandes B 34 13 8 13 43:35 47
9 La Virgen 34 12 8 14 31:37 44
10 Villaralbo 34 11 9 14 29:37 42
11 Leonesa B 34 12 6 16 38:43 42
12 Arandina 34 9 10 15 32:46 37
13 Colegios Diocesanos 34 10 6 18 33:54 36
14 Bembibre 34 8 10 16 38:52 34
15 Unionistas de Salamanca B 34 6 13 15 32:43 31
16 CD Mojados 34 7 10 17 28:55 31
17 Becerril 34 7 8 19 41:60 29
18 Numancia B 34 6 6 22 26:56 24
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 (Play Offs)