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Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Nubank Parque
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Arroyo K.
Assist: Alves Cardoso C. R.
12'
Arroyo K.
17'
Sub
Sosa R. In: Mauricio
Out: Sosa R.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Palmeiras
33%
Draws
27%
Cruzeiro
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Palmeiras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Cruzeiro haven't matched Palmeiras's recent run of results.
  • Palmeiras are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Serie A Betano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Palmeiras Clean Sheet 68%
Cruzeiro Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palmeiras Cruzeiro
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 19 14
Draws 7 8
Losses 2 6
Goals Scored 1.75 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro
0:0
Jun 1, 2025 Serie A Betano
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
2:1
Dec 5, 2024 Serie A Betano
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
1:2
Jul 21, 2024 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Palmeiras Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Anderson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Cruzeiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Arroyo K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palmeiras 50 / 100
Cruzeiro 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palmeiras Cruzeiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palmeiras found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (28 games).

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Palmeiras remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Cruzeiro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Palmeiras VS Cruzeiro
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1995529:2432
4Bragantino1993726:2030
5Athletico-PR1893624:1830
6Bahia1885527:2329
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Botafogo RJ1874733:3225
10Vitoria1874722:2525
11Atletico-MG1873822:2324
12Corinthians1866618:1924
13Cruzeiro1866624:2824
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1956827:3121
16Gremio1956821:2521
17Vasco1955922:3020
18Mirassol1854920:2519
19Remo1846821:2918
20Chapecoense-SC18161117:359