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Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Pablo Maia
40'
Luis Osorio
45' Event
Murilo

AI Match Summary

Palmeiras in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Palmeiras.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Palmeiras
30%
Draws
19%
Sao Paulo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Palmeiras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Paulo haven't matched Palmeiras's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Palmeiras a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Palmeiras have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Palmeiras Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palmeiras Sao Paulo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 8
Draws 10 9
Losses 4 12
Goals Scored 1.72 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.72 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
2:0
Mar 22, 2026 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras
0:1
Mar 1, 2026 Paulista
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
2:1
Jan 24, 2026 Paulista
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
3:1
Oct 5, 2025 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Palmeiras Compare

Top Goalscorer Murilo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vitor Roque
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sao Paulo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palmeiras 59 / 100
Sao Paulo 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palmeiras Sao Paulo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palmeiras Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palmeiras found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Recent resilience: Palmeiras stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Sao Paulo conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Palmeiras VS Sao Paulo
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Palmeiras

(Home)
09 Oct
Palmeiras
1 : 0
Bahia
20 Sept
Gremio
0 : 0
Palmeiras
16 Sept
LDU Quito
3 : 3
Palmeiras
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
09 Sept
Palmeiras
1 : 0
LDU Quito
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Sao Paulo

(Away)
08 Oct
Cruzeiro
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
02 Oct
Sao Paulo
1 : 2
Santos
20 Sept
Sao Paulo
1 : 0
Internacional
16 Sept
Sao Paulo
1 : 1
Boca Juniors
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 29 18 7 4 57:25 61
2 Palmeiras 29 17 9 3 48:21 60
3 Fluminense 29 14 9 6 48:36 51
4 Athletico-PR 29 14 8 7 45:34 50
5 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 44:40 48
6 Bahia 29 12 10 7 43:36 46
7 Atletico-MG 29 12 8 9 39:34 44
8 Santos 29 11 9 9 45:43 42
9 Coritiba 29 10 8 11 37:47 38
10 Bragantino 29 10 7 12 34:33 37
11 Sao Paulo 29 10 6 13 33:34 36
12 Vitoria 29 10 6 13 32:42 36
13 Botafogo RJ 29 9 8 12 42:47 35
14 Vasco 28 9 7 12 36:42 34
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 34:43 33
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 30:34 32
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 32:37 31
18 Gremio 29 7 9 13 31:39 30
19 Remo 29 5 9 15 33:48 24
20 Chapecoense-SC 28 3 9 16 29:57 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)