Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Panaderia vs Lanzarote

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Ndiaye M.
90'
Blas A.
90'
Blas A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Panaderia
35%
Draws
22%
Lanzarote
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Panaderia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Panaderia have won more games recently than Lanzarote.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Panaderia Clean Sheet 68%
Lanzarote Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Panaderia Lanzarote
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 8 12
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.43 1.2
Goals Conceded 1 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs Lanzarote
1:1
Nov 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs Panaderia
2:1
Mar 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs Lanzarote
3:1
Oct 20, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs Panaderia
1:1
May 26, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs Panaderia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Panaderia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ponce A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Lanzarote Compare

Top Goalscorer Ndiaye M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Panaderia 41 / 100
Lanzarote 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Panaderia Lanzarote

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Panaderia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Panaderia scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Lanzarote's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Panaderia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Panaderia VS Lanzarote
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Panaderia

(Home)
13 Sept
CD Marino
1 : 2
Panaderia
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2
Panaderia
16 May
Panaderia
0 : 2
UD San Fernando
10 May
Panaderia
0 : 0
Union Sur Yaiza
03 May
San Miguel
1 : 1
Panaderia
Page 1 of 6

Lanzarote

(Away)
13 Sept
Lanzarote
1 : 1
San Miguel
06 Aug
Lanzarote
1 : 2
Arenas Getxo
10 May
Lanzarote
0 : 0
Real Union Tenerife
03 May
San Bartolome
1 : 1
Lanzarote
25 Apr
Tamaraceite
1 : 1
Lanzarote
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paso 34 18 13 3 51:19 67
2 UD San Fernando 34 19 9 6 49:23 66
3 Mensajero 34 18 9 7 51:31 63
4 Tamaraceite 34 19 6 9 56:36 63
5 Panaderia 34 15 10 9 47:33 55
6 Las Palmas C 34 15 9 10 58:42 54
7 Tenerife C 34 14 10 10 49:46 52
8 Villa Santa Brigida 34 15 5 14 42:35 50
9 Lanzarote 34 12 12 10 45:36 48
10 Real Union Tenerife 34 12 9 13 34:32 45
11 San Miguel 34 10 9 15 37:43 39
12 CD Marino 34 8 15 11 44:40 39
13 Union Sur Yaiza 34 10 8 16 33:43 38
14 San Bartolome 34 8 12 14 30:55 36
15 Arucas 34 7 12 15 31:47 33
16 Herbania 34 7 11 16 39:58 32
17 SD Tenisca 34 6 7 21 32:68 25
18 Telde 34 5 10 19 30:71 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)