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Panaderia vs Telde

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Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Sullivan M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 game between Panaderia and Telde finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Panaderia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Panaderia
35%
Draws
16%
Telde
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Panaderia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Panaderia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Panaderia's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Panaderia have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Panaderia Clean Sheet 16%
Telde Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Panaderia Telde
Matches Played 41 31
Wins 18 6
Draws 11 9
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.27 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.98 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs Telde
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Telde vs Panaderia
0:3
Apr 7, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs Telde
5:0
Nov 11, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Telde vs Panaderia
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Panaderia Compare

Top Goalscorer Sullivan M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Telde Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Panaderia 48 / 100
Telde 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Panaderia Telde

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Panaderia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Telde conceded in 94% of 31 recent games.

Panaderia found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (41 games).

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Solid form: Panaderia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Panaderia VS Telde
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Panaderia

(Home)
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2
Panaderia
16 May
Panaderia
0 : 2
UD San Fernando
10 May
Panaderia
0 : 0
Union Sur Yaiza
03 May
San Miguel
1 : 1
Panaderia
25 Apr
Panaderia
1 : 1
Atletico Paso
Page 1 of 9

Telde

(Away)
08 May
Telde
0 : 3
Villa Santa Brigida
03 May
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 1
Telde
26 Apr
Telde
1 : 3
San Miguel
22 Apr
Herbania
1 : 1
Telde
19 Apr
Atletico Paso
1 : 1
Telde
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paso 34 18 13 3 51:19 67
2 UD San Fernando 34 19 9 6 49:23 66
3 Mensajero 34 18 9 7 51:31 63
4 Tamaraceite 34 19 6 9 56:36 63
5 Panaderia 34 15 10 9 47:33 55
6 Las Palmas C 34 15 9 10 58:42 54
7 Tenerife C 34 14 10 10 49:46 52
8 Villa Santa Brigida 34 15 5 14 42:35 50
9 Lanzarote 34 12 12 10 45:36 48
10 Real Union Tenerife 34 12 9 13 34:32 45
11 San Miguel 34 10 9 15 37:43 39
12 CD Marino 34 8 15 11 44:40 39
13 Union Sur Yaiza 34 10 8 16 33:43 38
14 San Bartolome 34 8 12 14 30:55 36
15 Arucas 34 7 12 15 31:47 33
16 Herbania 34 7 11 16 39:58 32
17 SD Tenisca 34 6 7 21 32:68 25
18 Telde 34 5 10 19 30:71 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)