Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Panathinaikos vs Aris

Greece Greece

Greek Cup 2025/2026 Olympic Stadium of Athens, Athens
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Alvaro P.
16' Event
Bakasetas A.
Assist: Swiderski K.
51'
Rose L.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Panathinaikos advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Panathinaikos
20%
Draws
20%
Aris
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Panathinaikos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Panathinaikos come out ahead of Aris on wins alone.
  • Panathinaikos are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Panathinaikos have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Panathinaikos, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Panathinaikos Clean Sheet 68%
Aris Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Panathinaikos Aris
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 19 12
Draws 7 11
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.84 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Super League
Panathinaikos vs Aris
3:1
Jan 14, 2026 Greek Cup
Panathinaikos vs Aris
3:0
Oct 19, 2025 Super League
Aris vs Panathinaikos
1:1
Feb 9, 2025 Super League
Aris vs Panathinaikos
2:0
Oct 27, 2024 Super League
Panathinaikos vs Aris
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Panathinaikos Compare

Top Goalscorer Bakasetas A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Aris Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Panathinaikos 95 / 100
Aris 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Panathinaikos Aris

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Panathinaikos Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Panathinaikos scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Panathinaikos has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Aris's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Panathinaikos VS Aris
2.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Panathinaikos

(Home)
20 Sept
Kalamata
0 : 1
Panathinaikos
16 Sept
Kifisia
0 : 2
Panathinaikos
13 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 0
Panetolikos
10 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 1
Kifisia
06 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 1
PAOK
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Aris

(Away)
19 Sept
Aris
0 : 0
Iraklis FC
16 Sept
Aris
1 : 0
Marko
13 Sept
PAOK
2 : 0
Aris
10 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
1 : 1
Aris
05 Sept
AEK
5 : 0
Aris
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
PAOK 2
Atromitos 1
Panathinaikos -
TBD -
Aris 2
Panetolikos 0
Levadiakos -
TBD -
Volos 0
Kifisia 1
AEK -
TBD -
OFI Crete 2
Asteras Tripolis 0
Quarter-finals
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
PAOK 2
Panathinaikos 3
Aris 0
Levadiakos 2
Kifisia 0
AEK 0
OFI Crete 1
Semi-finals
PAOK 3
Panathinaikos 0
Levadiakos 1
OFI Crete 2
Final
PAOK 2
OFI Crete 3