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Panathinaikos vs Aris

Greece Greece

Greek Cup Olympic Stadium of Athens
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Alvaro P.
16' Event
Bakasetas A.
Assist: Swiderski K.
51'
Rose L.

AI Match Summary

The Greek Cup game between Panathinaikos and Aris finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Panathinaikos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Panathinaikos
44%
Draws
20%
Aris
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Panathinaikos come out ahead of Aris on wins alone.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Panathinaikos Clean Sheet 12%
Aris Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Panathinaikos Aris
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 15 10
Draws 10 13
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 0.63 2
Goals Conceded 1.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Super League
Panathinaikos vs Aris
3:1
Jan 14, 2026 Greek Cup
Panathinaikos vs Aris
3:0
Oct 19, 2025 Super League
Aris vs Panathinaikos
1:1
Feb 9, 2025 Super League
Aris vs Panathinaikos
2:0
Oct 27, 2024 Super League
Panathinaikos vs Aris
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Panathinaikos Compare

Top Goalscorer Bakasetas A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Aris Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Panathinaikos 35 / 100
Aris 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Panathinaikos Aris

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Panathinaikos scored in 70% of their last 33 outings.

Aris's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Panathinaikos has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Panathinaikos VS Aris
0.63 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 57%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Olympiacos Piraeus-
TBD-
PAOK2
Atromitos1
Panathinaikos-
TBD-
Aris2
Panetolikos0
Levadiakos-
TBD-
Volos0
Kifisia1
AEK-
TBD-
OFI Crete2
Asteras Tripolis0
Quarter-finals
Olympiacos Piraeus0
PAOK2
Panathinaikos3
Aris0
Levadiakos2
Kifisia0
AEK0
OFI Crete1
Semi-finals
PAOK3
Panathinaikos0
Levadiakos1
OFI Crete2
Final
PAOK2
OFI Crete3