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PAOK vs AEK - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Greece Greece

Greek Cup Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
3 - 1
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Banza S.
Assist: Kenny J.
48'
Majer L.
50' Event
Jovic L.
Assist: Marin R.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
PAOK
15%
Draws
34%
AEK
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: PAOK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AEK come out ahead of PAOK on wins alone.
  • Model gives PAOK a 51% chance of winning this.
  • AEK arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor PAOK, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
PAOK Clean Sheet 12%
AEK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PAOK AEK
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 14 18
Draws 8 9
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.81 2.16
Goals Conceded 1.34 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2026 Greek Cup
PAOK vs AEK
3:1
May 13, 2026 Super League
PAOK vs AEK
1:1
Apr 19, 2026 Super League
AEK vs PAOK
3:0
Feb 15, 2026 Super League
PAOK vs AEK
0:0
Oct 19, 2025 Super League
AEK vs PAOK
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PAOK Compare

Top Goalscorer Banza S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shoretire S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

AEK Compare

Top Goalscorer Jovic L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PAOK 47 / 100
AEK 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PAOK AEK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAOK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PAOK's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: PAOK remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

AEK's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

PAOK VS AEK
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PAOK

(Home)
28 Oct
PAOK
3 : 1
AEK
25 Oct
OFI Crete
2 : 1
PAOK
18 Oct
PAOK
2 : 1
Iraklis FC
12 Oct
PAOK
1 : 3
Kalamata
20 Sept
Panetolikos
1 : 3
PAOK
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AEK

(Away)
28 Oct
PAOK
3 : 1
AEK
24 Oct
AEK
5 : 0
Panetolikos
20 Oct
Manchester City
5 : 1
AEK
14 Oct
Shakhtar
3 : 1
AEK
10 Oct
AEK
3 : 0
OFI Crete
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olympiacos Piraeus 3 3 0 0 9:2 9
2 Panathinaikos 3 3 0 0 5:1 9
3 PAOK 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
4 AEK 3 2 0 1 11:4 6
5 Kalamata 3 1 2 0 5:3 5
6 OFI Crete 3 1 1 1 3:1 4
7 Asteras Tripolis 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
8 Kifisia 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
9 Aris 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
10 AEL Larissa 3 1 1 1 2:5 4
11 Atromitos 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
12 Niki Volos 3 1 0 2 1:4 3
13 Volos 2 0 1 1 4:5 1
14 Marko 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
15 Chrisoupolis 3 0 0 3 0:7 0
16 Panserraikos 3 0 0 3 1:10 0
Promotion - Greek Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Greek Cup (Play Offs)