Sport Picks

Stadium Background

PAOK vs Panathinaikos

Greece Greece

Greek Cup 2025/2026 Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Michailidis G.
39'
Sub
Mythou A. In: Giakoumakis G.
Out: Mythou A.
39'
Sub
Pelkas D. In: Chatsidis D.
Out: Pelkas D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with PAOK advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
PAOK
15%
Draws
51%
Panathinaikos
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Panathinaikos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Panathinaikos come out ahead of PAOK on wins alone.
  • Panathinaikos are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Panathinaikos arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor PAOK, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
PAOK Clean Sheet 10%
Panathinaikos Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PAOK Panathinaikos
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 18
Draws 7 7
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.9 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.21 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Super League
Panathinaikos vs PAOK
3:1
May 17, 2026 Super League
Panathinaikos vs PAOK
2:2
Apr 5, 2026 Super League
PAOK vs Panathinaikos
0:0
Feb 11, 2026 Greek Cup
PAOK vs Panathinaikos
2:0
Feb 4, 2026 Greek Cup
Panathinaikos vs PAOK
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PAOK Compare

Top Goalscorer Giakoumakis G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chatsidis D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Panathinaikos Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PAOK 18 / 100
Panathinaikos 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PAOK Panathinaikos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Panathinaikos Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PAOK's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Panathinaikos let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

PAOK has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

PAOK VS Panathinaikos
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PAOK

(Home)
20 Sept
Panetolikos
1 : 3
PAOK
16 Sept
Atromitos
0 : 1
PAOK
13 Sept
PAOK
2 : 0
Aris
06 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 1
PAOK
02 Sept
PAOK
0 : 0
OFI Crete
Page 1 of 6

Panathinaikos

(Away)
20 Sept
Kalamata
0 : 1
Panathinaikos
16 Sept
Kifisia
0 : 2
Panathinaikos
13 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 0
Panetolikos
10 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 1
Kifisia
06 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 1
PAOK
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
PAOK 2
Atromitos 1
Panathinaikos -
TBD -
Aris 2
Panetolikos 0
Levadiakos -
TBD -
Volos 0
Kifisia 1
AEK -
TBD -
OFI Crete 2
Asteras Tripolis 0
Quarter-finals
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
PAOK 2
Panathinaikos 3
Aris 0
Levadiakos 2
Kifisia 0
AEK 0
OFI Crete 1
Semi-finals
PAOK 3
Panathinaikos 0
Levadiakos 1
OFI Crete 2
Final
PAOK 2
OFI Crete 3