Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Papua New Guinea vs Vanuatu - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International HFC Bank Stadium, Suva
Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
Kaltack T.
85' Event
Moses N.
89' Event
Vela E.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Papua New Guinea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Papua New Guinea
20%
Draws
51%
Vanuatu
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vanuatu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Vanuatu carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 15%
Vanuatu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Papua New Guinea Vanuatu
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 7 5
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.28 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.86 2.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs Vanuatu
2:1
Nov 23, 2025 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs Vanuatu
2:3
Dec 21, 2024 Friendly International
Vanuatu vs Papua New Guinea
1:2
Nov 23, 2023 Pacific Games
Papua New Guinea vs Vanuatu
1:1
Oct 14, 2023 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs Vanuatu
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Papua New Guinea Compare

Top Goalscorer Moses N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vela E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Vanuatu Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaltack T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Papua New Guinea 35 / 100
Vanuatu 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Papua New Guinea Vanuatu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vanuatu Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanuatu has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Papua New Guinea's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Papua New Guinea stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Papua New Guinea VS Vanuatu
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Papua New Guinea

(Home)
30 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 1
Solomon Islands
27 Sept
Fiji
2 : 0
Papua New Guinea
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2
New Caledonia
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1
Vanuatu
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3
Vanuatu
Page 1 of 6

Vanuatu

(Away)
03 Oct
Fiji
1 : 0
Vanuatu
27 Sept
Vanuatu
4 : 1
New Caledonia
24 Sept
Solomon Islands
3 : 3
Vanuatu
21 Sept
Fiji
0 : 1
Vanuatu
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1
Vanuatu
Page 1 of 6