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Paraguay vs Brazil - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

South America South America

Copa América Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Paraguay Logo

Paraguay

1 - 4
FT
Brazil Logo

Brazil

Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Lucas Paqueta
Penalty Missed
35' Event
Vinicius Junior
Assist: Lucas Paqueta
43' Event
Sávio
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-4. This leg finished 1-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Paraguay
20%
Draws
40%
Brazil
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Brazil lately — more wins on the board than Paraguay.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Brazil taking it.
  • Brazil arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Brazil, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Brazil have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Paraguay Clean Sheet 11%
Brazil Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paraguay Brazil
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 14 17
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.17 2
Goals Conceded 1 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 11, 2025 World Championship
Brazil vs Paraguay
1:0
Sep 11, 2024 World Championship
Paraguay vs Brazil
1:0
Jun 29, 2024 Copa América
Paraguay vs Brazil
1:4
Feb 2, 2022 World Championship
Brazil vs Paraguay
4:0
Jun 9, 2021 World Championship
Paraguay vs Brazil
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paraguay Compare

Top Goalscorer Alderete O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Brazil Compare

Top Goalscorer Vinicius Junior
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sávio
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paraguay 27 / 100
Brazil 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paraguay Brazil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brazil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paraguay scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Brazil conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Paraguay went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paraguay VS Brazil
1.38 Goals Scored 2.63
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paraguay

(Home)
03 Oct
Colombia
0 : 1
Paraguay
27 Sept
Bolivia
0 : 2
Paraguay
04 Jul
Paraguay
0 : 1
France
29 Jun
Germany
1 : 2
Paraguay
26 Jun
Paraguay
0 : 0
Australia
Page 1 of 6

Brazil

(Away)
03 Oct
India
0 : 4
Brazil
29 Sept
Australia
2 : 4
Brazil
25 Sept
Australia
1 : 1
Brazil
05 Jul
Brazil
1 : 2
Norway
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Argentina 3 3 0 0 5:0 9
2 Canada 3 1 1 1 1:2 4
3 Chile 3 0 2 1 0:1 2
4 Peru 3 0 1 2 0:3 1
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezuela 3 3 0 0 6:1 9
2 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
3 Mexico 3 1 1 1 1:1 4
4 Jamaica 3 0 0 3 1:7 0
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uruguay 3 3 0 0 9:1 9
2 Panama 3 2 0 1 6:5 6
3 USA 3 1 0 2 3:3 3
4 Bolivia 3 0 0 3 1:10 0
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Colombia 3 2 1 0 6:2 7
2 Brazil 3 1 2 0 5:2 5
3 Costa Rica 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
4 Paraguay 3 0 0 3 3:8 0
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)