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Parana vs Coritiba

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2025 Estádio Durival Britto e Silva, Curitiba
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Vini Paulista
28'
Bruno Vinicius
36'
Carlos Dias

AI Match Summary

Coritiba in this Paranaense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Coritiba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Parana
30%
Draws
27%
Coritiba
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Parana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Parana have won more games recently than Coritiba.
  • Model gives Parana a 43% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Paranaense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Coritiba here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Parana Clean Sheet 68%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parana Coritiba
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 10
Draws 9 10
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.3 1.32
Goals Conceded 0.73 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2025 Paranaense
Parana vs Coritiba
0:2
Feb 20, 2022 Paranaense
Parana vs Coritiba
1:2
Apr 24, 2021 Paranaense
Coritiba vs Parana
5:0
Jul 24, 2020 Paranaense
Coritiba vs Parana
2:1
Jul 19, 2020 Paranaense
Parana vs Coritiba
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Coritiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Vini Paulista
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dellatorre
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parana 95 / 100
Coritiba 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parana Coritiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Parana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Parana has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Parana found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Coritiba let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Parana VS Coritiba
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Parana

(Home)
27 Sept
Parana
3 : 0
Paranavai-PR
21 Sept
Londrina B
2 : 2
Parana
13 Sept
Azuriz
0 : 0
Parana
05 Sept
Parana
2 : 1
FC Cascavel
29 Aug
Athletico-PR B
1 : 2
Parana
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Coritiba

(Away)
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3
Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2
Mirassol
31 Aug
Remo
2 : 3
Coritiba
23 Aug
Coritiba
2 : 1
Corinthians
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Operario-PR 11 6 4 1 18:7 22
2 Athletico-PR 11 6 4 1 19:9 22
3 Coritiba 11 6 2 3 19:8 20
4 Londrina 11 6 2 3 16:10 20
5 Cianorte 11 5 2 4 18:13 17
6 Maringa FC 11 5 1 5 18:15 16
7 Azuriz 11 5 0 6 8:13 15
8 Sao Joseense 11 4 1 6 13:21 13
9 FC Cascavel 11 3 4 4 7:10 13
10 Clube Andraus Brasil 11 3 1 7 9:19 10
11 Rio Branco PR 11 3 1 7 11:22 10
12 Parana 11 1 4 6 4:13 7
Promotion - Paranaense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense 2 (Main)