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Parana vs Toledo

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2 Estádio Durival Britto e Silva, Curitiba
Parana Logo

Parana

2 - 0
FT
Toledo Logo

Toledo

Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Joao Felipe
45' Event
Carvalho E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Parana in this Paranaense 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Parana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Parana
30%
Draws
23%
Toledo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Parana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Parana have won more games recently than Toledo.
  • Win probability leans Parana's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Parana have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Parana Clean Sheet 68%
Toledo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parana Toledo
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 18 10
Draws 10 8
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.23 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Toledo
6:1
May 3, 2026 Paranaense 2
Toledo vs Parana
0:2
Apr 10, 2026 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Toledo
2:0
Apr 30, 2023 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Toledo
2:0
Mar 17, 2021 Paranaense
Toledo vs Parana
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parana Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Felipe
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carvalho E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Toledo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parana 95 / 100
Toledo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parana Toledo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Parana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 2:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Parana scored in 69% of their last 35 outings.

Toledo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Parana stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Parana VS Toledo
2.38 Goals Scored 0.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Parana

(Home)
13 Sept
Azuriz
0 : 0
Parana
05 Sept
Parana
2 : 1
FC Cascavel
29 Aug
Athletico-PR B
1 : 2
Parana
06 Jun
Parana
0 : 1
Paranavai-PR
30 May
Paranavai-PR
1 : 1
Parana
Page 1 of 7

Toledo

(Away)
10 May
Parana
6 : 1
Toledo
03 May
Toledo
0 : 2
Parana
25 Apr
Paranavai-PR
0 : 1
Toledo
19 Apr
Toledo
0 : 0
Rio Branco PR
10 Apr
Parana
2 : 0
Toledo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Parana 9 7 2 0 14:3 23
2 Patriotas 9 6 1 2 16:9 19
3 Laranja Mecanica 9 4 2 3 7:9 14
4 Araucaria 9 3 3 3 13:14 12
5 Rio Branco PR 9 2 5 2 16:14 11
6 Paranavai-PR 9 3 1 5 10:11 10
7 Nacional PR 9 2 4 3 9:12 10
8 Toledo 9 2 4 3 6:10 10
9 Batel 9 2 3 4 10:10 9
10 Prudentopolis 9 1 1 7 4:13 4
Promotion - Paranaense 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense 3 2027 (Main)