Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Paranoa vs Brasiliense

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Estadio Juscelino Kubitschek (JK), Paranoá
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Tarta

AI Match Summary

Brasiliense in this Brasiliense matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Brasiliense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Paranoa
20%
Draws
58%
Brasiliense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Brasiliense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paranoa lately — more wins on the board than Brasiliense.
  • Brasiliense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Brasiliense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 52.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Paranoa Clean Sheet 10%
Brasiliense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paranoa Brasiliense
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 13 12
Draws 5 13
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.3 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.57 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 2.52
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Brasiliense
0:1
Mar 8, 2025 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Paranoa
2:0
Feb 3, 2024 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Paranoa
0:0
Mar 5, 2023 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Paranoa
1:2
Jan 23, 2022 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Paranoa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paranoa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Brasiliense Compare

Top Goalscorer Tarta
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.29
Avg xA / game 1.4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paranoa 10 / 100
Brasiliense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paranoa Brasiliense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brasiliense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paranoa scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Defensive concern: Brasiliense conceded in 48% of 33 recent games.

Recent resilience: Paranoa stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paranoa VS Brasiliense
1.4 Goals Scored 1.25
3.8 Goals Conceded 0.88
80% Over 1.5 63%
80% Over 2.5 25%
80% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paranoa

(Home)
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
21 Feb
Ceilandia
4 : 1
Paranoa
11 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 1
Brasiliense
07 Feb
Real Brasilia
4 : 5
Paranoa
31 Jan
Gama
4 : 1
Paranoa
Page 1 of 6

Brasiliense

(Away)
27 Jun
Goiatuba EC
1 : 0
Brasiliense
21 Jun
Brasiliense
0 : 0
Goiatuba EC
07 Jun
Primavera AC
1 : 2
Brasiliense
31 May
Brasiliense
1 : 1
Luverdense
24 May
Brasiliense
1 : 0
Inhumas
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gama 9 7 2 0 15:4 23
2 Samambaia 9 6 2 1 21:5 20
3 Sobradinho 9 5 2 2 11:8 17
4 Ceilandia 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
5 Capital 9 4 3 2 19:10 15
6 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 13:7 15
7 Real Brasilia 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 Paranoa 9 2 0 7 8:24 6
9 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 1 0 8 4:19 3
10 ARUC 9 1 0 8 3:20 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)