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Paranoa vs Ceilandia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Carlos Henrique
76' Event
Edson
89' Event
Felipe Clemente

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2025 game between Paranoa and Ceilandia finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ceilandia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Paranoa
30%
Draws
47%
Ceilandia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ceilandia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Ceilandia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Ceilandia a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Brasiliense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Ceilandia have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Paranoa Clean Sheet 10%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paranoa Ceilandia
Matches Played 33 44
Wins 14 18
Draws 6 14
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.24 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.02
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 2.52
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Paranoa
4:1
Feb 8, 2025 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Ceilandia
1:2
Feb 17, 2024 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Paranoa
1:1
Feb 8, 2023 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Paranoa
3:0
Feb 19, 2022 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Paranoa
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paranoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Carlos Henrique
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Edson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Felipe Clemente
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.29
Avg xA / game 1.4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paranoa 10 / 100
Ceilandia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paranoa Ceilandia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ceilandia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Paranoa scored in 64% of their last 33 outings.

Ceilandia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 44 matches.

Recent resilience: Paranoa stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paranoa VS Ceilandia
0.33 Goals Scored 1.38
3.67 Goals Conceded 1.38
67% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 63%
67% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paranoa

(Home)
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
21 Feb
Ceilandia
4 : 1
Paranoa
11 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 1
Brasiliense
07 Feb
Real Brasilia
4 : 5
Paranoa
31 Jan
Gama
4 : 1
Paranoa
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Ceilandia

(Away)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brasiliense 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
2 Capital 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Ceilandia 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 Gama 9 5 2 2 7:4 17
5 Paranoa 9 5 0 4 13:11 15
6 Sobradinho 9 3 3 3 9:6 12
7 Samambaia 9 3 2 4 9:8 11
8 Real Brasilia 9 1 2 6 6:15 5
9 Ceilandense 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
10 Legiao 9 0 1 8 3:20 1
Promotion - Brasiliense 2025 (Play Offs)