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Paredes vs AD Marco 09

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Garro L.
Assist: Nandinho
18'
Sub
Goncalves T. In: Matos F.
Out: Goncalves T.
18'
Sub
Santos Outeiro D. In: Macedo Z.
Out: Santos Outeiro D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Paredes and AD Marco 09 finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Paredes
20%
Draws
24%
AD Marco 09
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paredes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Paredes carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Paredes a 56% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Paredes Clean Sheet 68%
AD Marco 09 Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paredes AD Marco 09
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 7
Draws 9 10
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.48 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs AD Marco 09
2:2
Feb 14, 2026 Liga 3
AD Marco 09 vs Paredes
0:2
Jan 11, 2026 Liga 3
AD Marco 09 vs Paredes
0:3
Oct 5, 2025 Liga 3
Paredes vs AD Marco 09
2:0
Jun 1, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Paredes vs AD Marco 09
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paredes Compare

Top Goalscorer Erik
1 Goals
Assists Leader Soares A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

AD Marco 09 Compare

Top Goalscorer Garro L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paredes 95 / 100
AD Marco 09 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paredes AD Marco 09

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paredes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paredes found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

AD Marco 09 let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Paredes remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Paredes VS AD Marco 09
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Paredes

(Home)
15 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
0 : 1
Paredes
07 Aug
Paredes
3 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
01 Aug
Paredes
4 : 2
Lusitania FC
22 Jul
AFS
2 : 4
Paredes
18 Jul
Santa Clara
2 : 0
Paredes
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AD Marco 09

(Away)
16 Aug
Varzim
2 : 1
AD Marco 09
09 Aug
AD Marco 09
2 : 1
Pacos Ferreira
01 Aug
Cinfaes
1 : 1
AD Marco 09
15 Jul
Leiria
2 : 0
AD Marco 09
03 May
Paredes
2 : 2
AD Marco 09
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