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Paredes vs Leca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Ferreira R.
Assist: Reis N.
20' Event
Fernandes G.
Assist: Vigario J.
22'
Ferreira R.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 game between Paredes and Leca finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Paredes
15%
Draws
36%
Leca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paredes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Leca haven't matched Paredes's recent run of results.
  • Paredes are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Paredes Clean Sheet 68%
Leca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paredes Leca
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 15
Draws 6 9
Losses 7 5
Goals Scored 1.72 1.83
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs Leca
1:2
May 25, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Leca vs Paredes
2:5
May 4, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Paredes vs Leca
2:0
May 1, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Leca vs Paredes
1:0
Mar 20, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Paredes vs Leca
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paredes Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandes G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Leca Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diego Fernandes
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paredes 86 / 100
Leca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paredes Leca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paredes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Paredes scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Leca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Paredes stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paredes VS Leca
2.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paredes

(Home)
20 Sept
Paredes
5 : 1
Maria de Fonte
13 Sept
Paredes
2 : 1
AD Fafe
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
30 Aug
Ermesinde
1 : 3
Paredes
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
Page 1 of 6

Leca

(Away)
20 Sept
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Leca
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
2 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 6:3 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
4 AD Fafe 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
5 SC Vianense 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Leca 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
7 Vitoria Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 2:7 4
9 Sao Joao de Ver 5 0 3 2 3:6 3
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 13:2 15
2 Atletico CP 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 9:5 7
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
6 Caldas SC 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
7 Lusitano GC 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Covilha 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
9 Santarem 5 1 1 3 3:10 4
10 Vitoria Sernache 5 0 1 4 3:13 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)