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Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Orm R.
27'
Sub
Viidas S. In: Kauber K.
Out: Viidas S.
42' Event
Sild J.

AI Match Summary

The Meistriliiga game between Parnu JK Vaprus and Harju JK Laagri finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Parnu JK Vaprus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Parnu JK Vaprus
20%
Draws
57%
Harju JK Laagri
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Harju JK Laagri

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Harju JK Laagri carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Harju JK Laagri are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Meistriliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 10%
Harju JK Laagri Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parnu JK Vaprus Harju JK Laagri
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 5 2
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.64 1.96
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
3:2
May 16, 2026 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Apr 4, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
0:2
Sep 27, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Jul 25, 2025 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Top Goalscorer Orm R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sild J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Harju JK Laagri Compare

Top Goalscorer Kerge S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Laur K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parnu JK Vaprus 10 / 100
Harju JK Laagri 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parnu JK Vaprus Harju JK Laagri

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Harju JK Laagri Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Parnu JK Vaprus found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Harju JK Laagri's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Parnu JK Vaprus went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Parnu JK Vaprus VS Harju JK Laagri
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Parnu JK Vaprus

(Home)
10 Oct
Parnu JK Vaprus
2 : 2
Narva
20 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
16 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
2 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
12 Sept
Levadia
4 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
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Harju JK Laagri

(Away)
10 Oct
Kalju
0 : 1
Harju JK Laagri
03 Oct
FC Tallinn
0 : 10
Harju JK Laagri
18 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 0
Kuressaare
13 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
1 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 30 15 5 10 52:28 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 30 15 2 13 41:47 47
6 Harju JK Laagri 30 12 2 16 41:47 38
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 30 10 5 15 41:59 35
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 30 9 1 20 47:72 28
10 Narva 30 5 5 20 24:67 20
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)