Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Pasaia host Derio in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. Little to choose between these two on current form. Derio have shipped 1.1 goals a game lately, while Pasaia have conceded 1.69 and scored 0.97. Head-to-head, Pasaia have won 1 to Derio's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 14, 2026, ending 0:4. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.44, favoring Derio. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Pasaia haven't matched Derio's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Pasaia | Derio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 13 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.4 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.69 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Derio let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Recent resilience: Pasaia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Pasaia scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Pasaia
(Home)Derio
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:8 | 16 |
| 2 | Leioa | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16:6 | 12 |
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8:3 | 12 |
| 4 | UD Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 11 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad C | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 6 | Alaves C | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 10 |
| 7 | Pasaia | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:10 | 10 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 8 |
| 9 | Touring KE | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 10 | Sodupe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:9 | 8 |
| 11 | SCD Durango | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 12 | Beasain | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | 7 |
| 13 | Lagun Onak | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | 7 |
| 14 | SD Erandio | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 15 | Santurtzi | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3:7 | 6 |
| 16 | Eibar C | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Union B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:12 | 5 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:13 | 1 |
