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Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Thailand Thailand

Thai League 1 True BG Stadium, Pathum Thani
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pathum United host Ayutthaya United in the Thai League 1. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Ayutthaya United have shipped 1.5 goals a game lately, while Pathum United have conceded 1.06 and scored 1.56. Head-to-head, Pathum United have won 3 to Ayutthaya United's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 22, 2026, ending 0:2. The numbers (2.06 xG vs 1.06) point toward Pathum United. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Pathum United
30%
Draws
35%
Ayutthaya United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pathum United come out ahead of Ayutthaya United on wins alone.
  • Pathum United are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Thai League 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Pathum United have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Pathum United Clean Sheet 20%
Ayutthaya United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pathum United Ayutthaya United
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 13 11
Draws 11 4
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.56 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Thai League 1
Ayutthaya United vs Pathum United
0:2
Oct 18, 2025 Thai League 1
Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United
1:0
Sep 25, 2019 Thai League 2
Ayutthaya United vs Pathum United
3:3
May 29, 2019 Thai League 2
Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pathum United 40 / 100
Ayutthaya United 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pathum United Ayutthaya United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pathum United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pathum United's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Ayutthaya United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Pathum United went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pathum United VS Ayutthaya United
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pathum United

(Home)
20 Sept
Bangkok Utd
3 : 2
Pathum United
17 Sept
Lion City Sailors
1 : 1
Pathum United
12 Sept
Pathum United
3 : 2
Rasisalai United
04 Sept
Pattani
0 : 0
Pathum United
09 Aug
Pathum United
2 : 2
Lee Man Warriors
Page 1 of 7

Ayutthaya United

(Away)
18 Sept
Ayutthaya United
1 : 2
Uthai Thani
12 Sept
Sisaket United
0 : 1
Ayutthaya United
06 Sept
Ayutthaya United
2 : 1
Ratchaburi
23 Aug
Ayutthaya United
0 : 3
Buriram United F.C.
17 May
Buriram United F.C.
5 : 0
Ayutthaya United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Buriram United F.C. 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
2 Rayong FC 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
3 Uthai Thani 3 2 0 1 7:4 6
4 Prachuap 3 2 0 1 4:1 6
5 Bangkok Utd 3 2 0 1 6:4 6
6 Port MTI FC 3 2 0 1 5:4 6
7 Ayutthaya United 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
8 Pathum United 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
9 Ratchaburi 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
10 Chiangrai Utd 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
11 Pattani 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
12 Sukhothai 3 1 0 2 3:5 3
13 Sisaket United 3 1 0 2 2:4 3
14 Rasisalai United 3 0 1 2 4:6 1
15 Lamphun Warrior 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
16 Chonburi 3 0 0 3 2:5 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Thai League 2 2027/2028 (Main)