Sport Picks

Colombia

Primera B Estadio La Independencia

Patriotas

1 - 0

Cartagena

Our Tip

Match Events

40'

Escobar A.

45'

Porras A.

59'

Guevara L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Patriotas in this Primera B matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Patriotas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%

Patriotas

28%

Draws

50%

Cartagena

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Cartagena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Patriotas haven't matched Cartagena's recent run of results.
50% — that's where the model lands on Cartagena taking it.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Patriotas have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%

Patriotas Clean Sheet 21%

Cartagena Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Patriotas	Cartagena
Matches Played	31	33
Wins	12	14
Draws	8	12
Losses	11	7
Goals Scored	0.75	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Primera B

Patriotas vs Cartagena

Possession: 53% - 59% Cards: 3 - 4

1:0

Nov 20, 2025 Primera B

Cartagena vs Patriotas

Possession: 43% - 49% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Nov 7, 2025 Primera B

Patriotas vs Cartagena

Possession: 45% - 53% Cards: 1 - 3

2:2

Sep 16, 2025 Primera B

Patriotas vs Cartagena

Possession: 57% - 56% Cards: 1 - 1

3:1

Apr 17, 2025 Primera B

Cartagena vs Patriotas

Possession: 44% - 45% Cards: 2 - 2

1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Patriotas Compare

Top Goalscorer Torres F.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Cartagena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Patriotas 24 / 100

Cartagena 59 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Patriotas Cartagena

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RCA Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Patriotas's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Cartagena conceded in 67% of 33 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Patriotas went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Patriotas VS Cartagena

0.75 Goals Scored 1.13

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25

50% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter Palmira	15	12	2	1	29:13	38
2	Union Magdalena	15	10	2	3	27:15	32
3	Quindio	15	9	4	2	20:10	31
4	Envigado	15	9	2	4	24:14	29
5	Cartagena	15	7	5	3	23:15	26
6	Bogota	15	6	5	4	16:14	23
7	Barranquilla	15	6	2	7	21:20	20
8	Tigres Futbol Club	15	5	5	5	15:14	20
9	Ind. Yumbo	15	4	7	4	13:14	19
10	Orsomarso	15	4	5	6	13:17	17
11	Patriotas	15	4	5	6	13:17	17
12	Boca Juniors de Cali	15	2	7	6	15:20	13
13	Real Cundinamarca	15	2	7	6	14:19	13
14	Leones	15	2	4	9	8:24	10
15	Atletico F.C.	15	1	6	8	12:23	9
16	Real Santander	15	1	4	10	9:23	7