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Pau vs Grenoble - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 2 Nouste Camp, Pau
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pau host Grenoble in the Ligue 2. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Pau at 1.3 goals for, 1.81 against; Grenoble at 0.93 for, 1.21 against. Past meetings favor Pau slightly — 2-0-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 23, 2026, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.00, favoring Pau. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Pau
30%
Draws
23%
Grenoble
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Pau carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Pau are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Pau Clean Sheet 20%
Grenoble Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pau Grenoble
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 10 5
Draws 4 13
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.3 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 23, 2026 Ligue 2
Pau vs Grenoble
2:2
Oct 17, 2025 Ligue 2
Grenoble vs Pau
1:1
Feb 28, 2025 Ligue 2
Pau vs Grenoble
1:0
Aug 30, 2024 Ligue 2
Grenoble vs Pau
1:1
Feb 24, 2024 Ligue 2
Grenoble vs Pau
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pau 67 / 100
Grenoble 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pau Grenoble

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pau scored in 70% of their last 27 games.

Grenoble let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Pau stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pau VS Grenoble
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pau

(Home)
09 Oct
Pau
3 : 2
Laval
03 Oct
Toulouse
2 : 3
Pau
18 Sept
Pau
2 : 0
Dunkerque
11 Sept
Montpellier
1 : 0
Pau
04 Sept
Pau
1 : 1
Sochaux
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Grenoble

(Away)
09 Oct
Montpellier
2 : 0
Grenoble
02 Oct
Grenoble
0 : 0
Lausanne Ouchy
18 Sept
Grenoble
1 : 1
Clermont
11 Sept
Rodez
0 : 1
Grenoble
04 Sept
Grenoble
1 : 2
Annecy
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St Etienne 8 6 1 1 21:8 19
2 Red Star 8 5 2 1 12:9 17
3 Montpellier 8 4 3 1 8:5 15
4 Reims 8 3 5 0 15:9 14
5 Nancy 8 4 1 3 9:7 13
6 Annecy 8 4 1 3 10:9 13
7 Pau 8 3 2 3 9:8 11
8 Sochaux 8 2 5 1 5:6 11
9 Metz 7 2 4 1 10:7 10
10 Dijon 7 2 3 2 10:10 9
11 Guingamp 8 2 2 4 10:13 8
12 Dunkerque 8 2 2 4 10:13 8
13 Nantes 8 2 2 4 9:13 8
14 Grenoble 8 2 2 4 8:13 8
15 Rodez 8 2 1 5 14:18 7
16 Boulogne 8 0 6 2 4:6 6
17 Clermont 8 0 6 2 6:9 6
18 Laval 8 1 2 5 10:17 5
Promotion - Ligue 1 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 2027/2028 (Main)