Sport Picks

France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Nouste Camp

Pau

2 - 1

Guingamp

Our Tip

Match Events

15'

Sadik O.

35'

Mafouta L.

Assist: Kielt S.

54'

Dong K.

Assist: Glossoa N.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Pau in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Pau

28%

Draws

22%

Guingamp

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Pau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Attack-wise there's a gap: Pau at 1 per game, Guingamp at 0.5.
Model gives Pau a 50% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%

Pau Clean Sheet 17%

Guingamp Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Pau	Guingamp
Matches Played	25	27
Wins	8	8
Draws	6	7
Losses	11	12
Goals Scored	1	0.5
Goals Conceded	2.25	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Ligue 2

Pau vs Guingamp

Possession: 50% - 46% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Nov 8, 2025 Ligue 2

Guingamp vs Pau

Possession: 44% - 59% Cards: 0 - 4

2:2

May 10, 2025 Ligue 2

Pau vs Guingamp

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

1:3

Oct 18, 2024 Ligue 2

Guingamp vs Pau

Possession: 54% - 43% Cards: 1 - 1

0:1

Apr 27, 2024 Ligue 2

Pau vs Guingamp

Possession: 60% - 40% Cards: 3 - 2

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pau Compare

Top Goalscorer Dong K.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Guingamp Compare

Top Goalscorer Mafouta L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pau 48 / 100

Guingamp 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Pau Guingamp

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAU Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pau found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (25 games).

Guingamp let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Away concern: Guingamp has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pau VS Guingamp

1 Goals Scored 0.5

2.25 Goals Conceded 1.38

63% Over 1.5 50%

63% Over 2.5 25%

50% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Troyes	34	20	7	7	60:33	67
2	Le Mans	34	16	14	4	50:31	62
3	St Etienne	34	18	6	10	59:38	60
4	Red Star	34	16	10	8	45:37	58
5	Rodez	34	15	13	6	45:39	58
6	Reims	34	14	14	6	53:35	56
7	Annecy	34	15	7	12	49:39	52
8	Montpellier	34	14	9	11	41:31	51
9	Pau	34	12	9	13	48:62	45
10	Dunkerque	34	11	10	13	53:45	43
11	Guingamp	34	10	10	14	42:49	40
12	Grenoble	34	8	15	11	33:39	39
13	Clermont	34	9	10	15	38:44	37
14	Nancy	34	9	10	15	35:52	37
15	Boulogne	34	9	9	16	34:49	36
16	Laval	34	6	14	14	30:48	32
17	Bastia	34	5	13	16	23:39	28
18	Amiens SC	34	6	6	22	37:65	24
19	AC Ajaccio	0	0	0	0	0:0	0