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Pau vs Tarbes - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Lefebvre A.
45'
47' Event
Lefebvre A.

AI Match Summary

Pau in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Pau
30%
Draws
31%
Tarbes
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pau lately — more wins on the board than Tarbes.
  • Win probability leans Pau's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Pau have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Pau Clean Sheet 20%
Tarbes Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pau Tarbes
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 4 7
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.26 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.46 1.16
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Club Friendly
Pau vs Tarbes
3:0
Dec 4, 2016 Coupe de France
Pau vs Tarbes
1:0
Jan 23, 2016 National 1 - Group C
Tarbes vs Pau
0:2
Aug 22, 2015 National 1 - Group C
Pau vs Tarbes
1:0
Jan 24, 2015 National 2 - Group D
Tarbes vs Pau
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pau Compare

Top Goalscorer Lefebvre A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Saettel T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.23

Tarbes Compare

Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pau 40 / 100
Tarbes 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pau Tarbes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pau's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Tarbes let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Pau went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Pau VS Tarbes
0.63 Goals Scored 0.43
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.29
63% Over 1.5 14%
50% Over 2.5 14%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pau

(Home)
09 Oct
Pau
3 : 2
Laval
03 Oct
Toulouse
2 : 3
Pau
18 Sept
Pau
2 : 0
Dunkerque
11 Sept
Montpellier
1 : 0
Pau
04 Sept
Pau
1 : 1
Sochaux
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Tarbes

(Away)
03 Oct
Tarbes
0 : 0
Dinan
19 Sept
Les Herbiers
0 : 1
Tarbes
12 Sept
Tarbes
1 : 2
Angouleme CFC
05 Sept
Voltigeurs de Chateaubriant
0 : 0
Tarbes
29 Aug
Tarbes
1 : 0
Lorient II
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