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Pau vs Tarbes

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Lefebvre A.
45'
47' Event
Lefebvre A.

AI Match Summary

Pau in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Pau
15%
Draws
57%
Tarbes
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tarbes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pau lately — more wins on the board than Tarbes.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Pau have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Pau Clean Sheet 16%
Tarbes Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pau Tarbes
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.25 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.82 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Club Friendly
Pau vs Tarbes
3:0
Dec 4, 2016 Coupe de France
Pau vs Tarbes
1:0
Jan 23, 2016 National 1 - Group C
Tarbes vs Pau
0:2
Aug 22, 2015 National 1 - Group C
Pau vs Tarbes
1:0
Jan 24, 2015 National 2 - Group D
Tarbes vs Pau
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pau Compare

Top Goalscorer Lefebvre A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Saettel T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Tarbes Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pau 36 / 100
Tarbes 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pau Tarbes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tarbes Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tarbes's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Pau scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Tarbes lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Pau VS Tarbes
1 Goals Scored 0
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pau

(Home)
14 Aug
Dijon
0 : 1
Pau
08 Aug
Pau
0 : 1
Annecy
01 Aug
Pau
1 : 2
Real Union
25 Jul
Real Sociedad B
4 : 0
Pau
21 Jul
Espanyol
4 : 0
Pau
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Tarbes

(Away)
17 Jul
Pau
3 : 0
Tarbes
19 May
Tarbes
0 : 3
Toulon
12 May
Marseille II
1 : 2
Tarbes
28 Apr
Tarbes
1 : 0
RC Grasse
21 Apr
Stade Bordelais
3 : 1
Tarbes
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