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Pavia vs Calcio Derthona

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2017/2018
Pavia Logo

Pavia

1 - 0
FT
Calcio Derthona Logo

Calcio Derthona

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 game between Pavia and Calcio Derthona finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pavia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Pavia
35%
Draws
41%
Calcio Derthona
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Calcio Derthona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Pavia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Pavia's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Pavia Clean Sheet 20%
Calcio Derthona Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavia Calcio Derthona
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 5
Draws 9 9
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 0.9 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2018 Serie D - Group A
Pavia vs Calcio Derthona
1:0
Oct 8, 2017 Serie D - Group A
Calcio Derthona vs Pavia
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavia 42 / 100
Calcio Derthona 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavia Calcio Derthona

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pavia found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Calcio Derthona let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Pavia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pavia VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavia

(Home)
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
06 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Crema
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
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Calcio Derthona

(Away)
06 May
Bra
1 : 2
Calcio Derthona
29 Apr
Calcio Derthona
1 : 1
Olginatese
22 Apr
Gozzano
6 : 1
Calcio Derthona
15 Apr
Calcio Derthona
1 : 3
Inveruno
08 Apr
OltrepoVoghera
1 : 1
Calcio Derthona
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gozzano 38 25 7 6 68:25 82
2 Como 38 25 6 7 58:27 81
3 Caronnese 38 21 11 6 62:30 74
4 AC Chieri 38 19 14 5 64:37 71
5 Pro Sesto 38 20 7 11 69:43 67
6 Folgore Caratese 38 14 14 10 45:39 56
7 Inveruno 38 14 10 14 44:48 52
8 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 9 15 40:39 51
9 Arconatese 38 14 8 16 37:46 50
10 Bra 38 13 10 15 45:51 49
11 Pavia 38 12 11 15 53:58 47
12 Borgaro 38 11 13 14 35:44 46
13 Olginatese 38 9 18 11 37:44 45
14 Seregno Calcio 38 10 14 14 45:54 44
15 OltrepoVoghera 38 9 16 13 34:47 43
16 Casale 38 10 12 16 41:48 42
17 Varesina 38 10 11 17 33:45 41
18 Varese 38 8 16 14 47:49 40
19 Calcio Derthona 38 5 11 22 25:62 26
20 Castellazzo 38 3 10 25 32:78 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Play Offs)