Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pavia vs Real Calepina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Semprini A.

AI Match Summary

Real Calepina in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Real Calepina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Pavia
30%
Draws
35%
Real Calepina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pavia lately — more wins on the board than Real Calepina.
  • 35% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Pavia Clean Sheet 25%
Real Calepina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavia Real Calepina
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 9 8
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.09 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Real Calepina
0:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Real Calepina vs Pavia
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pavia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Real Calepina Compare

Top Goalscorer Semprini A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavia 37 / 100
Real Calepina 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavia Real Calepina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Real Calepina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Calepina let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Pavia found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Pavia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pavia VS Real Calepina
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavia

(Home)
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
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Real Calepina

(Away)
03 May
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Scanzorosciate
26 Apr
Sondrio
5 : 1
Real Calepina
19 Apr
Folgore Caratese
1 : 1
Real Calepina
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Breno
08 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 0
AC Milan U23
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)