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Pavia vs Varese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2017/2018
Pavia Logo

Pavia

0 - 5
FT
Varese Logo

Varese

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Varese in this Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Varese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Pavia
30%
Draws
31%
Varese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pavia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pavia lately — more wins on the board than Varese.
  • Win probability leans Varese's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Pavia Clean Sheet 20%
Varese Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavia Varese
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 5
Draws 10 15
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.81 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2018 Serie D - Group A
Pavia vs Varese
0:5
Nov 1, 2017 Serie D - Group A
Varese vs Pavia
2:0
Apr 11, 2009 Lega Pro C2/A
Varese vs Pavia
3:1
Nov 16, 2008 Lega Pro C2/A
Pavia vs Varese
1:1
Feb 10, 2008 Lega Pro C2/A
Varese vs Pavia
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavia 20 / 100
Varese 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavia Varese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Varese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Pavia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Varese lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pavia VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavia

(Home)
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
06 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Crema
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
Page 1 of 7

Varese

(Away)
13 May
OltrepoVoghera
2 : 0
Varese
06 May
Varesina
2 : 1
Varese
29 Apr
Varese
1 : 1
AC Chieri
22 Apr
Varese
2 : 0
Castellazzo
15 Apr
Seregno Calcio
2 : 1
Varese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gozzano 38 25 7 6 68:25 82
2 Como 38 25 6 7 58:27 81
3 Caronnese 38 21 11 6 62:30 74
4 AC Chieri 38 19 14 5 64:37 71
5 Pro Sesto 38 20 7 11 69:43 67
6 Folgore Caratese 38 14 14 10 45:39 56
7 Inveruno 38 14 10 14 44:48 52
8 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 9 15 40:39 51
9 Arconatese 38 14 8 16 37:46 50
10 Bra 38 13 10 15 45:51 49
11 Pavia 38 12 11 15 53:58 47
12 Borgaro 38 11 13 14 35:44 46
13 Olginatese 38 9 18 11 37:44 45
14 Seregno Calcio 38 10 14 14 45:54 44
15 OltrepoVoghera 38 9 16 13 34:47 43
16 Casale 38 10 12 16 41:48 42
17 Varesina 38 10 11 17 33:45 41
18 Varese 38 8 16 14 47:49 40
19 Calcio Derthona 38 5 11 22 25:62 26
20 Castellazzo 38 3 10 25 32:78 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Play Offs)