Sport Picks

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Pavia vs Varesina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Cominetti M.
48' Event
Arcopinto A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group B matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Pavia
11%
Draws
80%
Varesina
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Varesina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pavia lately — more wins on the board than Varesina.
  • Win probability leans Varesina's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Pavia Clean Sheet 22%
Varesina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavia Varesina
Matches Played 34 33
Wins 10 9
Draws 10 14
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Varesina
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Pavia
2:2
Feb 4, 2018 Serie D - Group A
Varesina vs Pavia
2:2
Oct 1, 2017 Serie D - Group A
Pavia vs Varesina
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Cominetti M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Varesina Compare

Top Goalscorer Arcopinto A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavia 13 / 100
Varesina 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavia Varesina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varesina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 33 matches.

Attacking prowess: Pavia scored in 74% of their last 34 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Pavia remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pavia VS Varesina
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavia

(Home)
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
Page 1 of 7

Varesina

(Away)
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
03 May
Caldiero Terme
2 : 2
Varesina
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
AC Milan U23
0 : 1
Varesina
12 Apr
Varesina
0 : 1
Chievo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)