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Pavia vs Varesina - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Cominetti M.
48' Event
Arcopinto A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Pavia
35%
Draws
26%
Varesina
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pavia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Varesina lately — more wins on the board than Pavia.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Pavia Clean Sheet 68%
Varesina Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavia Varesina
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 10
Draws 9 10
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.9 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Varesina
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Pavia
2:2
Feb 4, 2018 Serie D - Group A
Varesina vs Pavia
2:2
Oct 1, 2017 Serie D - Group A
Pavia vs Varesina
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Cominetti M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Varesina Compare

Top Goalscorer Arcopinto A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavia 41 / 100
Varesina 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavia Varesina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pavia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pavia's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Varesina has conceded goals in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Pavia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pavia VS Varesina
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavia

(Home)
07 Oct
Pavia
1 : 3
Sant'Angelo
04 Oct
Correggese
2 : 1
Pavia
27 Sept
Pavia
1 : 1
Arconatese
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
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Varesina

(Away)
04 Oct
Varesina
0 : 0
Pro Patria
27 Sept
USD Casatese
4 : 2
Varesina
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Correggese
2 : 1
Varesina
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)