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Pavonese vs Fiorenzuola - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pavonese host Fiorenzuola in the Serie D - Group B. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Pavonese have averaged 0.83 scored and 1.5 conceded recently, against Fiorenzuola's 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (0.92 xG vs 0.90) point toward Pavonese. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Pavonese
35%
Draws
19%
Fiorenzuola
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pavonese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fiorenzuola come out ahead of Pavonese on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Pavonese taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Pavonese Clean Sheet 20%
Fiorenzuola Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavonese Fiorenzuola
Matches Played 6 30
Wins 2 5
Draws 1 5
Losses 3 20
Goals Scored 0.83 0.6
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 0.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavonese 36 / 100
Fiorenzuola 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavonese Fiorenzuola

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fiorenzuola's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Pavonese stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Pavonese's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 6 recent games.

Difficult form: Fiorenzuola registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pavonese VS Fiorenzuola
0.71 Goals Scored 0.5
1.29 Goals Conceded 1.13
57% Over 1.5 38%
29% Over 2.5 38%
14% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavonese

(Home)
11 Oct
AC Leon
3 : 0
Pavonese
27 Sept
Virtus Verona
0 : 1
Pavonese
20 Sept
Pavonese
3 : 2
Tritium
16 Sept
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1
Pavonese
12 Sept
Pavonese
0 : 2
Club Milano
Page 1 of 2

Fiorenzuola

(Away)
10 Oct
Fiorenzuola
0 : 0
Piacenza
04 Oct
Villa Valle
0 : 0
Fiorenzuola
27 Sept
Fiorenzuola
1 : 1
Caldiero Terme
20 Sept
Brusaporto
1 : 0
Fiorenzuola
16 Sept
Fiorenzuola
0 : 1
Pro Palazzolo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nibbiano & Valtidone 7 6 0 1 11:3 18
2 Chievo 7 5 1 1 15:7 16
3 AC Leon 7 3 3 1 12:7 12
4 Caldiero Terme 7 3 3 1 12:9 12
5 Piacenza 6 3 2 1 10:4 11
6 Villa Valle 7 2 4 1 9:6 10
7 Pro Palazzolo 7 3 1 3 7:10 10
8 Ciserano-Bergamo 7 2 3 2 9:8 9
9 AC Milan U23 5 3 0 2 9:9 9
10 Brusaporto 7 3 0 4 7:9 9
11 Virtus Verona 7 2 3 2 6:8 9
12 Real Calepina 7 2 2 3 11:12 8
13 Scanzorosciate 7 2 2 3 6:8 8
14 Club Milano 7 2 1 4 5:7 7
15 Pavonese 6 2 1 3 5:9 7
16 Rovato Vertovese 7 1 3 3 10:13 6
17 Fiorenzuola 7 0 3 4 1:7 3
18 Tritium 7 0 2 5 7:16 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)