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Stadium Background

Paysandu PA vs Independente

Brazil Brazil

Paraense 2025 Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Curuzu)
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Nicolas

AI Match Summary

Paysandu PA in this Paraense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paysandu PA.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Paysandu PA
28%
Draws
50%
Independente
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Independente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Paysandu PA have won more games recently than Independente.
  • Model gives Independente a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Paraense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Paysandu PA Clean Sheet 17%
Independente Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paysandu PA Independente
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 24 9
Draws 5 12
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.63 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.60

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 17, 2025 Paraense
Paysandu PA vs Independente
1:0
Mar 12, 2023 Paraense
Independente vs Paysandu PA
3:3
Feb 23, 2022 Paraense
Independente vs Paysandu PA
0:1
Apr 20, 2021 Paraense
Independente vs Paysandu PA
0:1
Apr 17, 2021 Paraense
Paysandu PA vs Independente
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paysandu PA Compare

Top Goalscorer Nicolas
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Independente Compare

Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.67

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paysandu PA 23 / 100
Independente 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paysandu PA Independente

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paysandu PA scored in 80% of their last 40 games.

Independente's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Paysandu PA stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paysandu PA VS Independente
1.63 Goals Scored 1.2
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.6
88% Over 1.5 60%
75% Over 2.5 40%
38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Remo852117:417
2Paysandu PA852115:717
3Bragantino PA852111:617
4Castanhal834110:713
5Tuna Luso832312:1211
6Aguia De Maraba83239:1011
7Capitao Poco82519:911
8Santa Rosa83147:910
9Cameta83146:1110
10Sao Francisco82069:166
11Independente81345:126
12Caete81075:123
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Paysandu PA852115:717
2Cameta83146:1110
3Sao Francisco82069:166
4Caete81075:123
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Remo852117:417
2Bragantino PA852111:617
3Castanhal834110:713
4Independente81345:126
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tuna Luso832312:1211
2Aguia De Maraba83239:1011
3Capitao Poco82519:911
4Santa Rosa83147:910