Sport Picks

Portugal

Taça de Portugal 2016/2017

Penalva do Castelo

Sun, Sep 4, 2016

3 - 2

04:00 PM

Academica Coimbra SF

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-2, with Penalva do Castelo advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Penalva do Castelo

11%

Draws

80%

Academica Coimbra SF

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Academica Coimbra SF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Academica Coimbra SF haven't matched Penalva do Castelo's recent run of results.
80% — that's where the model lands on Academica Coimbra SF taking it.
Penalva do Castelo have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Penalva do Castelo, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%

Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 18%

Academica Coimbra SF Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penalva do Castelo	Academica Coimbra SF
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	5	3
Draws	7	6
Losses	18	21
Goals Scored	0.75	1
Goals Conceded	1.63	2
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2016 Taça de Portugal

Penalva do Castelo vs Academica Coimbra SF

3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penalva do Castelo 12 / 100

Academica Coimbra SF 74 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penalva do Castelo Academica Coimbra SF

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ACA Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Academica Coimbra SF let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Academica Coimbra SF has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Penalva do Castelo scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Penalva do Castelo VS Academica Coimbra SF

0.75 Goals Scored 1

1.63 Goals Conceded 2

88% Over 1.5 100%

38% Over 2.5 100%

25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Penalva do Castelo

(Home)

12 May

Leca

2 : 0

Penalva do Castelo

05 May

Penalva do Castelo

0 : 2

Coimbroes

28 Apr

Penalva do Castelo

0 : 0

Paredes

20 Apr

Cinfaes

2 : 1

Penalva do Castelo

14 Apr

Penalva do Castelo

1 : 3

SC Espinho

Page 1 of 6

Academica Coimbra SF

(Away)

22 Sept

Academica Coimbra SF

1 : 2

Atletico Arcos

14 May

Academica Coimbra SF

2 : 0

FC Pampilhosa

07 May

Sanjoanense

3 : 2

Academica Coimbra SF

30 Apr

Academica Coimbra SF

1 : 2

Cinfaes

23 Apr

Nogueirense

0 : 1

Academica Coimbra SF

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes-

TBD-

Beneditense2

Sp. Lourel1

Malveira1

Santa Iria2

Leiria10

CF Os Gavionenses0

TBD-

Portimonense-

TBD-

Boavista-

Pacos Ferreira-

TBD-

Moura AC2

Beira-Mar Almada0

TBD-

Aves-

Vitoria Sernache1

Ac. Fundao0

FC Felgueiras1

Camacha2

Vilaverdense FC3

Vilar de Perdizes0

TBD-

Vilafranquense-

Braga-

TBD-

Barrosas-

TBD-

Sendim1

AD Oliveirense8

Rio Ave-

TBD-

Lusitano GC-

TBD-

Santa Clara-

Varzim-

TBD-

Anadia-

Sousense-

TBD-

GD Tourizense2

Agueda3

Freamunde-

TBD-

Cerva-

GD Joane1

Barrosas0

TBD-

Covilha-

Sporting CP-

TBD-

Mosteirense3

SL Cartaxo2

TBD-

Famalicao-

SC Farense2

Lusitano GC0

Sao Roque0

SC Angrense1

Coimbroes3

Gondomar0

Sporting Ideal0

SC Praiense2

SB Castelo Branco8

Naval0

Alianca de Gandra0

Santa Eulalia1

Torre De Moncorvo2

Aguiar da Beira1

SC Espinho0

Cinfaes4

Trofense5

CF Canical0

CD Gouveia0

Beira Mar4

TBD-

Vitoria Setubal-

Torreense1

Mafra0

SC Mirandela2

Maria de Fonte3

Gafetense1

Sintrense0

TBD-

Academico Viseu-

Estarreja4

FC Pampilhosa1

CDC Montalegre0

Ponte da Barca1

TBD-

Nacional-

FC Porto-

TBD-

Atletico Arcos1

GD Uniao Torcatense0

Anadia1

Gafanha2

U. Madeira-

TBD-

FC Cesarense1

Moimenta da Beira2

TBD-

Chaves-

Estoril-

TBD-

Sao Roque-

TBD-

Fazendense0

Caldas SC3

Mortagua FC1

Nogueirense0

TBD-

CF Os Gavionenses-

Viana Alentejo3

CDR Quarteirense0

TBD-

Cova De Piedade-

Gil Vicente-

TBD-

CD Rabo Peixe-

Pinhalnovense2

Lagoa0

TBD-

Casa Pia-

Lusitano VRSA3

Louletano0

Casa Pia2

Fabril do Barreiro3

Pedras Salgadas1

GD Braganca0

SC Salgueiros2

Sanjoanense4

Penafiel-

TBD-

Trancoso0

Oliveirense2

Penalva do Castelo3

Academica Coimbra SF2

Cerva0

Amarante FC2

Moreirense-

TBD-

Alcobaca1

GD Sourense0

TBD-

Vizela-

Feirense-

TBD-

Sendim-

TBD-

Vinha da Rainha1

Alcanenense4

BSAD-

TBD-

CD Gouveia-

TBD-

Academica-

Leixoes-

TBD-

Cruzado Canicense1

Pedras Rubras4

Almancilense1

Amora0

Cerveira0

Merelinense3

FC Barreirense2

Operario1

Sousense0

Valadares Gaia FC2

GS Loures2

Vilafranquense1

FC Flamengos0

Oriental4

Aljustrelense4

Praia Milfontes1

Redondense1

Armacenenses6

Alcains2

Oleiros0

Aguia Vimioso1

AD Limianos5

Sertanense1

Marinhense0

AD Satao1

Lusitano FCV3

TBD-

Tondela-

Real SC3

CD Rabo Peixe0

Raimonda0

Sao Martinho6

TBD-

Arouca-

Fatima2

Carapinheirense0

TBD-

FC Pampilhosa-

Sacavenense4

Atletico CP0

TBD-

Olhanense-

Maritimo-

TBD-

AD Fafe-

TBD-

Naval-

1º Dezembro3

SC Lusitania2

TBD-

Sp. Lourel-

TBD-

Benfica-

1/64-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes-

TBD-

Beneditense0

Santa Iria3

Leiria3

Portimonense2

TBD-

Boavista-

Pacos Ferreira-

TBD-

Moura AC0

Aves4

Vitoria Sernache2

Camacha1

Vilaverdense FC0

Vilafranquense1

Braga-

TBD-

Barrosas2

AD Oliveirense3

Rio Ave-

TBD-

Lusitano GC0

Santa Clara3

Varzim1

Anadia0

Sousense1

Agueda2

Freamunde5

Cerva0

GD Joane0

Covilha1

Sporting CP-

TBD-

Mosteirense0

Famalicao2

SC Farense2

SC Angrense0

Coimbroes2

SC Praiense5

SB Castelo Branco3

Santa Eulalia1

Torre De Moncorvo0

Cinfaes3

Trofense6

Beira Mar1

TBD-

Vitoria Setubal-

Torreense3

Maria de Fonte0

Gafetense1

Academico Viseu3

Estarreja3

Ponte da Barca1

TBD-

Nacional-

FC Porto-

TBD-

Atletico Arcos0

Gafanha2

U. Madeira1

Moimenta da Beira0

TBD-

Chaves-

Estoril-

TBD-

Sao Roque0

Caldas SC3

Mortagua FC3

CF Os Gavionenses2

Viana Alentejo1

Cova De Piedade2

Gil Vicente2

CD Rabo Peixe0

Pinhalnovense1

Casa Pia2

Lusitano VRSA2

Fabril do Barreiro0

Pedras Salgadas1

Sanjoanense6

Penafiel2

Oliveirense1

Penalva do Castelo0

Amarante FC4

Moreirense-

TBD-

Alcobaca0

Vizela2

Feirense-

TBD-

Sendim2

Alcanenense4

BSAD-

TBD-

CD Gouveia1

Academica2

Leixoes1

Pedras Rubras0

Almancilense0

Merelinense2

FC Barreirense3

Valadares Gaia FC0

GS Loures1

Oriental2

Aljustrelense3

Armacenenses2

Alcains0

AD Limianos4

Sertanense2

Lusitano FCV1

TBD-

Tondela-

Real SC3

Sao Martinho2

TBD-

Arouca-

Fatima1

FC Pampilhosa0

Sacavenense0

Olhanense1

Maritimo-

TBD-

AD Fafe2

Naval3

1º Dezembro2

Sp. Lourel0

TBD-

Benfica-

1/32-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes2

Santa Iria1

Leiria0

Boavista2

Pacos Ferreira2

Aves1

Vitoria Sernache0

Vilafranquense1

Braga3

AD Oliveirense1

Rio Ave1

Santa Clara2

Varzim3

Agueda0

Freamunde0

Covilha1

Sporting CP1

Famalicao0

SC Farense1

SC Praiense3

SB Castelo Branco1

Cinfaes0

Trofense0

Vitoria Setubal1

Torreense2

Academico Viseu0

Estarreja1

Nacional3

FC Porto3

Gafanha0

U. Madeira0

Chaves1

Estoril1

Caldas SC0

Mortagua FC0

Cova De Piedade1

Gil Vicente1

Casa Pia0

Lusitano VRSA1

Sanjoanense2

Penafiel1

Amarante FC0

Moreirense0

Vizela1

Feirense2

Alcanenense1

BSAD0

Academica2

Leixoes3

Merelinense2

FC Barreirense0

Oriental2

Aljustrelense1

AD Limianos0

Sertanense0

Tondela4

Real SC1

Arouca0

Fatima1

Olhanense2

Maritimo4

Naval0

1º Dezembro1

Benfica2

1/16-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes2

Boavista1

Pacos Ferreira0

Vilafranquense1

Braga2

Santa Clara1

Varzim0

Covilha1

Sporting CP5

SC Praiense1

SB Castelo Branco0

Vitoria Setubal2

Torreense1

Nacional0

FC Porto0

Chaves1

Estoril2

Cova De Piedade0

Gil Vicente0

Sanjoanense1

Penafiel1

Vizela0

Feirense0

Academica1

Leixoes2

Oriental1

Aljustrelense1

Tondela2

Real SC2

Olhanense0

Maritimo0

Benfica6

1/8-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes1

Vilafranquense0

Braga1

Covilha2

Sporting CP1

Vitoria Setubal0

Torreense2

Chaves3

Estoril4

Sanjoanense2

Penafiel0

Academica1

Leixoes2

Tondela1

Real SC0

Benfica3

Quarter-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes1

Covilha0

Sporting CP0

Chaves1

Estoril2

Academica1

Leixoes2

Benfica6

Semi-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes3

Chaves3

Estoril4

Benfica5

Final

Vitoria Guimaraes1

Benfica2