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Penapolense vs Jabaquara

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Gustavo Cezar
16' Event
Vieira D.
54' Event
Ryan

AI Match Summary

Penapolense in this Paulista A4 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penapolense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Penapolense
35%
Draws
31%
Jabaquara
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Penapolense have won more games recently than Jabaquara.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Paulista A4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Penapolense Clean Sheet 22%
Jabaquara Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penapolense Jabaquara
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 14 6
Losses 5 15
Goals Scored 1.44 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs Jabaquara
3:2
Feb 22, 2025 Paulista A4
Jabaquara vs Penapolense
2:1
Feb 24, 2024 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs Jabaquara
4:1
Aug 12, 2023 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs Jabaquara
2:0
Aug 5, 2023 Paulista A4
Jabaquara vs Penapolense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penapolense Compare

Top Goalscorer Vieira D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ryan
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Jabaquara Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Cezar
1 Goals
Assists Leader Duarte I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penapolense 37 / 100
Jabaquara 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penapolense Jabaquara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jabaquara Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Penapolense went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Penapolense's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Jabaquara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Penapolense VS Jabaquara
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Penapolense

(Home)
09 May
Inter de Bebedouro
1 : 1
Penapolense
06 May
Penapolense
2 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
02 May
Sao Caetano
2 : 2
Penapolense
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1
Sao Caetano
18 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 2
Taquaritinga
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Jabaquara

(Away)
04 Apr
AEA Aracatuba
0 : 3
Jabaquara
28 Mar
Jabaquara
2 : 1
Comercial
25 Mar
Lemense
0 : 0
Jabaquara
21 Mar
Jabaquara
1 : 1
Taquaritinga
18 Mar
Penapolense
3 : 2
Jabaquara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)