Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Henrique L.
45'
45'
Luan Carioca
(Penalty)
45'
45'
Caiuby F.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-2. The second leg ended 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
35%
6%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Penapolense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Penapolense's 1.38 goals per match outpaces what Sao Caetano have produced (1.06).
- 59% — that's where the model lands on Penapolense taking it.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Penapolense, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Penapolense Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Caetano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Penapolense | Sao Caetano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 35 |
| Wins | 12 | 12 |
| Draws | 14 | 10 |
| Losses | 6 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.06 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 2, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Penapolense
2:2
Apr 25, 2026 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs Sao Caetano
2:1
Feb 21, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Penapolense
0:2
Mar 16, 2025 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs Sao Caetano
1:1
Jan 22, 2020 Paulista A2
Penapolense vs Sao Caetano
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Penapolense Compare
Top Goalscorer Henrique L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Sao Caetano Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Penapolense 95 / 100
Sao Caetano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Penapolense Sao Caetano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Penapolense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Penapolense stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Penapolense scored in 72% of their last 32 games.
Sao Caetano let in goals in 63% of their last 35 matches.
Scoring Trends
Penapolense VS Sao Caetano
2 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Penapolense
(Home) 09 May
Inter de Bebedouro
1 : 1 Penapolense
06 May
Penapolense
2 : 1 Inter de Bebedouro
02 May
Sao Caetano
2 : 2 Penapolense
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1 Sao Caetano
18 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 2 Taquaritinga
Page 1 of 7
06 May
Penapolense
2 : 1 Inter de Bebedouro
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1 Sao Caetano
18 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 2 Taquaritinga
28 Mar
Penapolense
6 : 0 AEA Aracatuba
25 Mar
Penapolense
1 : 1 Barretos EC
Page 1 of 3
Sao Caetano
(Away) 05 Sept
Primavera EC
7 : 0 Sao Caetano
29 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 5 Primavera EC
22 Aug
Sao Jose EC
0 : 0 Sao Caetano
17 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 1 Santo Andre
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0 Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 7
05 Sept
Primavera EC
7 : 0 Sao Caetano
22 Aug
Sao Jose EC
0 : 0 Sao Caetano
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0 Sao Caetano
26 Jul
Santo Andre
0 : 0 Sao Caetano
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1 Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Inter de Bebedouro 4
Lemense 0
Sao-Carlense 2
Barretos EC 1
Sao Caetano 1
Jacarei FC 0
Penapolense 3
Taquaritinga 3
Semi-finals
Inter de Bebedouro 4
Sao-Carlense 2
Sao Caetano 3
Penapolense 4
Final
Inter de Bebedouro 2
Penapolense 3
