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Penaranda de Bracamonte vs Colegios Diocesanos

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 8 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Penaranda de Bracamonte play Colegios Diocesanos in the Tercera Division - Group 8 2020/2021. It looks like a close match. Recently, Penaranda de Bracamonte averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Colegios Diocesanos averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. In past meetings, Penaranda de Bracamonte won 1, Colegios Diocesanos won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 22, 2021 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.42 for Penaranda de Bracamonte and 0.99 for Colegios Diocesanos. This points to a Colegios Diocesanos double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Penaranda de Bracamonte
16%
Draws
43%
Colegios Diocesanos
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Colegios Diocesanos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Penaranda de Bracamonte picked up more points recently compared to Colegios Diocesanos.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.42 vs 0.99 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Penaranda de Bracamonte Clean Sheet 23%
Colegios Diocesanos Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penaranda de Bracamonte Colegios Diocesanos
Matches Played 30 39
Wins 8 15
Draws 6 5
Losses 16 19
Goals Scored 0.93 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.41

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Penaranda de Bracamonte vs Colegios Diocesanos
1:0
Apr 10, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Colegios Diocesanos vs Penaranda de Bracamonte
2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penaranda de Bracamonte 42 / 100
Colegios Diocesanos 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penaranda de Bracamonte Colegios Diocesanos

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Colegios Diocesanos or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Penaranda de Bracamonte attacking → ← attacking Colegios Diocesanos

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penaranda de Bracamonte scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Colegios Diocesanos let in goals in 69% of their last 39 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Penaranda de Bracamonte went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Colegios Diocesanos lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 50
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63