Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Penarol vs CA Cerro

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Arezo M.
26' Event
Angulo L.
27'
Sub
Sena N. In: Severo A.
Out: Sena N.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Penarol and CA Cerro finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Penarol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Penarol
28%
Draws
22%
CA Cerro
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Penarol come out ahead of CA Cerro on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Penarol's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Penarol have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol CA Cerro
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.25 0.5
Goals Conceded 1 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Penarol
0:1
Mar 21, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs CA Cerro
3:1
Oct 25, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Penarol
2:0
Jun 28, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs CA Cerro
2:0
Apr 27, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs CA Cerro
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Arezo M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Angulo L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

CA Cerro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 59 / 100
CA Cerro 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol CA Cerro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

CA Cerro let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Penarol has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS CA Cerro
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)
18 Jul
Penarol
3 : 0
Boston River
12 Jul
Racing Montevideo
1 : 1
Penarol
07 Jun
CA Cerro
0 : 1
Penarol
01 Jun
Penarol
0 : 1
Central Esp.
28 May
Penarol
0 : 1
Santa Fe
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CA Cerro

(Away)
12 Jul
Liverpool M.
1 : 2
CA Cerro
07 Jun
CA Cerro
0 : 1
Penarol
29 May
Cerro Largo
2 : 0
CA Cerro
24 May
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Central Esp.
16 May
Boston River
4 : 1
CA Cerro
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)